It’s finally come to this: USA versus Sweden. First versus third. Two top-ranked teams with high expectations who haven’t quite delivered on their promise.
You know how the USWNT got here, of course: via a group-stage gauntlet that saw the Americans beat Vietnam (fine, but underwhelming), draw with the Netherlands (expected, but concerning in context) and scrape through against Portugal (terrifying, and triggering an absolute avalanche of negative press). Sweden, meanwhile, fared a little better. The Swedes’ biggest shock came early when they eked out a tough win over South Africa in their opening game. From there, it was relatively smooth sailing. Sweden beat Italy 5-0 and Argentina 2-0 to qualify in first place from their group.
The headlining clash of the Round of 16 is also one of the least surprising. These two teams have faced each other at every World Cup since 2003. The USWNT have the edge with a 4-1-1 record from those meetings, but Sweden have pulled off some stylish wins over the USWNT in recent years — just look at their 3-0 demolition of the side from the Tokyo Olympics for inspiration.
Both teams have a lot of noise surrounding them as they prepare for this do-or-die clash. For neutral viewers, noise is fun; it amps up the pressure and helps create in-game storylines. But noise makes betting difficult because it obscures the facts behind a wall of nonstop sound.
Where are the best bets hiding in the USWNT-Sweden cacophony? We think they’re hiding here:
Result. The narrative surrounding the USWNT’s underperformance is what it is: The team has clearly struggled at this World Cup, but it’s important to remember that the USWNT would struggle against Sweden in any context. The Scandinavian powerhouse is a notorious USWNT bogey team, one that always gives the U.S. a good game. If the USWNT had smashed Portugal 4-0 and flipped the script, they’d be in just as much danger against Sweden as they are now.
With that in mind, if you’re interested in an intriguing but slightly unpatriotic bet, consider a moneyline bet for a draw at +210. In World Cup knockout rounds, the moneyline bet only covers the standard 90 minutes of play and stoppage time — extra time and penalties are their own beast. By betting on a moneyline draw, you’re calling that the USWNT and Sweden will be level at the end of standard time…but not making any decisions about who will be victorious in the end.
Method of Victory. If you feel confident that the USWNT and Sweden will play for extra time and/or penalties, you can bet on it! The odds that either team will win in extra time are +550; the odds that either will win on penalties are +430. Both are long shots but worth considering for two fierce rivals who often have little separating them on the field.
Goalkeeper Saves. One of Sweden’s greatest assets is its height — this team scored five of its nine group stage goals by winning aerial duels on corners. With a full arsenal of corner kick plays and a reputation for attacking soccer, it’s likely that USWNT goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher will be busier in the Sweden game than she’s been all tournament. Betting on her to make three or more saves at +135 is a great way to give credence to Sweden’s offensive strength without committing to a Swedish victory.
The USWNT will take on Sweden on Sunday, Aug. 6, at 5 a.m. ET/2 a.m. PT. Get up early if you’re on the East Coast, or stay up late if you’re on the West Coast. With a rivalry this close and this contentious, the game is likely to be a memorable one.
[All betting odds courtesy of FanDuel.]
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