WASHINGTON: The US economy grew at a robust 6.6 per cent annual rate last quarter, slightly faster than previously estimated, the government said Thursday (Aug 26) in a report that pointed to a sustained consumer-led rebound from the pandemic recession. But worries are growing that the Delta variant of the coronavirus is beginning to cause a slowdown.
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department estimated that the nation’s gross domestic product — its total output of goods and services — accelerated slightly in the April-June quarter from the 6.5 per cent it had reported last month. The economy’s expansion last quarter followed a solid 6.3 per cent annual growth rate in the January-March quarter.
In recent weeks, though, many economists have been downgrading their estimates of GDP growth for this quarter, and for 2021 as a whole, as the now-dominant delta variant has sent confirmed COVID-19 cases rising throughout the country.
New reported cases are now topping 150,000 a day, the highest level since late January. As a consequence, real-time tracking of consumer activities, notably for airline travel and restaurant dining, has weakened in recent weeks.
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for annual growth in the current July-September quarter from 9 per cent to 5.5 per cent, citing the effects of the Delta variant. Likewise, Wells Fargo economists have downgraded their third quarter GDP forecast from an 8.8 per cent annual rate to 6.8 per cent, also because of the surge in COVID-19 cases.
Some forecasters have also reduced their outlook for the full year, thought by smaller amounts, in anticipation that the economy could re-accelerate in the final three months of 2021 if COVID-19 cases ease as vaccines are increasingly administered.
