Ukraine Sees Upside in Russian Military Chaos

Kyiv’s military has struggled for weeks to break through Russian defenses as Ukraine pushes a counteroffensive along parts of the 600-mile front line in the country’s east and south.

Now, the most capable Russian fighting force, the Wagner paramilitary group, has launched an armed revolt against the country’s military that is likely to disorient and demoralize Russian troops. The infighting offers Kyiv a fresh window to advance.

“No soldier wants to die in a war that he thinks might already be lost, or be killed…when it’s almost over,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe.

However events unfold in the insurrection among Russian military forces, Ukraine stands to gain. A question for its commanders is how to capitalize on the dissent and disorder in the most effective way possible.

Ukrainian soldiers and officials on Saturday said they were carefully following events in Russia, where Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said 25,000 of his fighters had taken control of the southern regional capital of Rostov and were moving north toward the capital.

“Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Twitter. “The longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later.”

The Ukrainian military also urged Russia to withdraw its forces as the country appeared headed toward battles between rival forces.

“The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is wondering why Russian soldiers are still sitting in muddy trenches rather than running to the aid of their comrades on both sides of the conflict,” the defense ministry said. “That would be far safer than confronting the Ukrainian army.”

The seeds of Prigozhin’s insurrection were planted earlier this year in Bakhmut. For nearly 10 months, Wagner spearheaded a campaign to take the eastern Ukrainian city. While Kyiv’s forces clung to its western edge this spring, tensions between Prigozhin and Russian military officials burst into the open.

Prigozhin complained that his men were dying because the military was starving them of ammunition. He repeatedly accused Russian generals of incompetence and praised the Ukrainian military by comparison. Last month, he said Wagner had lost 20,000 fighters in Bakhmut.

Moscow, meanwhile, accused Prigozhin of capturing and torturing a Russian colonel, and the two sides skirmished as Wagner handed off control of the city to regular Russian forces early this month. Soon after the Russian military took over, it lost ground that Wagner had taken on the city’s flanks.

“Wagner was the only successful element of Russia’s invasion for a year,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. “But unless Wagner contributes to the demise of the regime it will be eventually defeated and will stop playing its role in the invasion.”

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said that regardless of whether Prigozhin’s rebellion succeeds, the Russian military will be weaker. He added that Ukraine wasn’t likely to make any dramatic moves to exploit the situation right away.

“We don’t know the impact on the Russian army now in Ukraine,” he said.

Ukrainian troops say little has changed along the 600-mile front line so far. Some have been told to be prepared to redeploy but haven’t been moved from current positions.

“We don’t see any troops moving out,” said one Ukrainian soldier fighting in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. “But there has been less fire from their side, and we are moving forward.”

Ukrainian social media was full of upbeat posts on Saturday, cheering on the fight between two parts of a military force responsible for thousands of civilian deaths in Ukraine. Ukrainian troops celebrated.

Robert Brovdi, the commander of a Ukrainian drone unit that fought against Wagner in Bakhmut and nearby Soledar, posted a video of himself dipping his hand into three large tubs of popcorn as he watched news on the mutiny in Russia.

“We’re all watching and following,” said Oleksandr Borodin, a soldier in the Third Storm Brigade that is advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut, looking to encircle Russian forces in the city against stiff resistance.

An officer in a Ukrainian drone unit who goes by the call sign Odysseus welcomed the infighting in Russia.

“I wish they would kill each other,” he said. “This is very good for us.”

—Stephen Kalin contributed to this article.

Write to Matthew Luxmoore at [email protected] and Ian Lovett at [email protected]

Updated: 24 Jun 2023, 10:25 PM IST