UFC 290 takes place Saturday in Las Vegas highlighted by two championship matchups, a de facto title eliminator and perhaps the best prospect in the entire sport.
It’s the organization’s annual International Fight Week event and fittingly the main card has an international flair with athletes from Australia, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, New Zealand and the United States all set to compete.
Alexander Volkanovski looks to defend his featherweight title versus Yair Rodriguez in the main event; flyweight champion Brandon Moreno aims to avenge a pair of losses against challenger Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event; former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker takes on dangerous finisher Dricus du Plessis with a potential title shot against Israel Adesanya on the line; exciting lightweights Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker do battle, plus wrestling phenom and blue-chip prospect Bo Nickal looks to stay undefeated in MMA when he faces late-replacement opponent Val Woodburn.
The preliminary card boasts rising welterweight contender Jack Della Maddalena seeking his fifth consecutive finish, promising women’s flyweight prospect Yazmin Jauregui looking to improve to 11-0, plus former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler capping off his legendary career with a retirement bout versus Niko Price and his fan-friendly style in the featured prelim.
With that in mind, let’s look at the three most anticipated bouts on the card and the corresponding odds.
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ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI VS. YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Volkanovski to win -370 | Rodriguez to win +265 | Draw +5200
Volkanovski by decision +105 | Rodriguez by decision +1000
Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ +235 | Rodriguez by KO/TKO/DQ +565
Volkanovski by submission +900 | Rodriguez by submission +1400
Over 4.5 -140 | Under 4.5 +100
Volkanovski is a heavy favourite, which was to be expected. He is unbeaten when competing at 145 pounds but is coming off his first loss in the UFC — a narrow decision defeat to reigning lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in an outstanding five-rounder at February’s UFC 284. Rodriguez, meanwhile, has won his past two by stoppage including a dominant showing against Josh Emmett who he submitted on that same UFC 284 card.
Rodriguez’s only losses in his UFC career were to former UFC champions Max Holloway in 2021 and Frankie Edgar in 2017. Rodriguez was outpointed on the feet by Holloway in a five-round Fight of the Night and was dominated and busted up with ground-and-pound by Edgar. Volkanovski has the skill set to do both, but the 30-year-old Rodriguez could be peaking at the right time.
Volkanovski’s fight IQ and resolve are unmatched in the weight class, while Rodriguez’s unpredictability and versatile striking attack are his best attributes. Volkanovski lands 6.35 significant strikes per minute compared to absorbing only 3.40; Rodriguez lands 4.78 and eats 4.03. Volkanovski is also the stronger athlete and should possess the wrestling advantage.
If you’re looking for value there’s plenty to be had on Rodriguez, the longer fighter whose kicks have been a difference maker in the past; don’t overlook Volkanovski’s low calf kicks though. The Mexican is a live dog here despite the champion’s immaculate featherweight resume.
Implied outcome: Volkanovski by decision +105
Best value bet: Rodriguez by KO/TKO/DQ +565
BRANDON MORENO VS. ALEXANDRE PANTOJA
Moreno to win -205 | Pantoja to win +155 | Draw +5100
Moreno by decision +175 | Pantoja by decision +400
Moreno by KO/TKO/DQ +255 | Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ +1100
Moreno by submission +1000 | Pantoja by submission +450
Over 3.5 -185 | Under 3.5 +145
This flyweight title fight is a trilogy bout more than five years in the making. Although he’s the listed underdog for UFC 290, Pantoja already has two wins over Moreno — a submission in 2016 in an exhibition match when the two competed on The Ultimate Fighter and then a three-round unanimous decision in 2018.
Moreno was cut by the UFC after his second loss to Pantoja but worked his way back and has gone 7-1-2 since then with three of those wins coming in title fights. Pantoja is 6-2 since beating Moreno a second time with five of those wins being by stoppage, but decision losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov prevented him from competing for the title.
This marks just the second time since 2020 that Moreno has fought someone besides Figueiredo. Those two competed against one another four times in a three-year span with Moreno going 2-1-1 in that rivalry, including his most recent win at UFC 283 (TKO via doctor’s stoppage) in January.
Pantoja is in unfamiliar territory as the underdog here. In fact, the last time he didn’t close as a favourite or at even money was in 2018 for his fight with Dustin Ortiz when Pantoja lost a decision. Since 2016, Moreno is 4-2 in fights when he closes as the favourite.
Ahead of their 2018 bout, Moreno and Pantoja both closed at even -110 odds. Moreno has made marked improvements and become champion since last fighting Pantoja but will it be enough for him to come through for his backers as roughly a two-to-one favourite?
Implied outcome: Moreno by decision +175
Best value bet: Pantoja by submission +450
ROBERT WHITTAKER VS. DRICUS DU PLESSIS
Whittaker to win -390 | Du Plessis to win +270 | Draw +5200
Whittaker by decision +175 | Du Plessis by decision +800
Whittaker by KO/TKO/DQ +130 | Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ +510
Whittaker by submission +1100 | Du Plessis by submission +1400
Over 2.5 +130 | Under 2.5 -165
A de facto middleweight title eliminator scheduled for three rounds should be a Fight of the Night contender. Whittaker is the best 185-pounder in the UFC not named Adesanya, and the former titleholder is looking to get a third crack at the current champ.
Du Plessis has more holes in his game than Whittaker does, no doubt, but he has amassed a 5-0 UFC record with four stoppage wins thanks to his knockout power and durability. This is the first time the South African has been an underdog in the UFC. He was the dog in both his fights against Roberto Soldic back in 2018 when he competed for the KSW welterweight title, winning when he was +220 and losing then rematch when he was +145.
Whittaker is favoured more often than he’s not but he has never previously been this big a favourite in the UFC. The only other time he was at least a three-to-one favourite in the UFC was in 2016 when he closed at -310 before his fight with Rafael Natal. He beat Natal by unanimous decision at UFC 197.
The total rounds prop will be interesting to watch here as Whittaker’s past six victories have all been by decision, with four being five-round bouts, whereas du Plessis has finished four of his five UFC opponents. Whittaker is 15-4 in his UFC career with 10 of his wins coming by decision.
Implied outcome: Whittaker by KO/TKO/DQ +130
Best value bet: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ +510
MAIN CARD (moneyline odds in parentheses)
— Alexander Volkanovski (-370) vs. Yair Rodríguez (+265)
— Brandon Moreno (-205) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+155)
— Robert Whittaker (-390) vs. Dricus du Plessis (+270)
— Jalin Turner (-330) vs. Dan Hooker (+235)
— Bo Nickal (-1190) vs. Val Woodburn (+800)
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Robbie Lawler (+175) vs. Niko Price (-235)
— Jack Della Maddalena (-1060) vs. Josiah Harrell (+625)
— Yazmin Jauregui (-430) vs. Denise Gomes (+295)
— Jimmy Crute (-145) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+110)
— Tatsuro Taira (-970) vs. Edgar Chairez (+585)
— Vitor Petrino (-295) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+215)
— Cameron Saaiman (-570) vs. Terrence Mitchell (+380)
— Shannon Ross (+115) vs. Jesus Aguilar (-145)
— Kamuela Kirk (+125) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-160)
(Listed odds above via Sports Interaction as of Friday afternoon and subject to change)
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