Before getting stuck into why the National League is long overdue a third promotion spot, just look at the worst four teams in League Two this season.
Rochdale, in 21st, have won just four of their 20 games; Hartlepool United, in 22nd, have managed three wins from 21; Colchester United, second bottom in 23rd, also have three wins from 21; rock-bottom Gillingham have a staggeringly poor two wins from 20 on the board.
We point that out to say that two of those teams will still be in League Two next season. Enough is enough. It’s time to stop rewarding mediocrity and give a third promotion spot to the National League.
The quality of the National League has re-opened the debate for a three up, three down model
With only two teams relegated, League Two repeatedly rewards mediocrity for poor sides
It wasn’t until 1986-87 that automatic promotion-relegation was first introduced between the fourth division – now League Two – and the top tier of non-league football.
Lincoln City were the first to be relegated, while Scarborough became the first side automatically thrust into division four. The old, antiquated and frankly unsuitable re-election system was, thankfully, binned.
From there it took another 16 years before a second promotion/relegation spot opened up for those on the edge of league-to-non-league status. And now here we are, two decades later still calling for a third promotion/relegation offering.
Sportsmail exclusively revealed on Friday that the EFL are ready to offer three promotion places to the National League, as part of their contribution to the financial reset being demanded by chairman Rick Parry.
But for clubs in non-league they’ll believe it when they see it, frankly.
Two of these four clubs at the bottom of League Two will survive despite poor campaigns
‘Would a three up, three down situation be better for the game, not just the National League but across the pyramid of football from step six right the way through the game? Yes of course it would,’ Mark Ives, National League CEO, told the BBC early this season.
‘I would be hopeful at some stage in the future we will get into that situation where we have three up, three down. It is what football deserves.’
On and off the pitch the evidence in favour of another promotion spot for the National League is compelling.
Start off it – look at attendances.
Twelve teams in League Two – half of the division – draw in less than 5,000 fans on average for their matches. Nine of them come in at lower than 4,000.
Then look to six National League sides pulling in more than 5,000 – with four (Wrexham, Notts County, Oldham Athletic and Chesterfield) boasting more than 6,600 fans a game.
Notts County recently set a fifth-tier attendance record and interest in the league is growing
Look, however, more closely on the pitch for a more damning indictment of why the absence of a third promotion spot – given four teams can win promotion up to League One – makes less and less sense.
Only one of the seven teams relegated to the National League since 2018 – Grimsby Town – have won promotion back to the league.
And the two to be relegated last season – Oldham and Scunthorpe United – are currently in the relegation zone, staring relegation to the National League North in the face.
What about those eight teams that went up since 2018? Well, only Macclesfield Town, wrecked by financial irregularities, dissolved in 2020 and now climbing their way back up non-league’s pyramid, are no longer still in the Football League.
As for Stockport County and Grimsby, promoted last season, they are five and six points respectively adrift of the play-off places. Both will believe they can make a run in 2023 in a bid to do the double and end up in League One.
Meanwhile, sides like Gillingham are stagnating, scoring just six league goals this season
Oh, and since automatic promotion to League Two was enacted in 1986-87, no team has ever immediately been relegated back down.
In fact, widening the argument out, of the 24 teams promoted to the Football League from 2009-10 to 2020-21, 21 are still there now – and we’ve already mentioned the financial Armageddon that cost Macclesfield as one of the unlucky three. York City and Barnet are the other two.
Of the 20 clubs – Grimsby, Barnet and Macclesfield were repeat offenders – relegated in the same period, less than half – eight – are now back in the Football League.
More evidence needed? What about the fact that since that second promotion spot was added in 2002-03, only one team has managed to go straight back up as champions – Cheltenham Town under Gary Johnson in 2015-16.
If the argument is that non-league sides cannot swing enough punches to land in League Two, why are more relegated teams not making light work of the fifth division?
Across the past 20 seasons only Shrewsbury Town (2003-04), Carlisle United (2004-05), Bristol Rovers (2014-15), Cheltenham Town (2015-16) and Grimsby Town (2021-22) have managed immediate returns.
It took Luton Town, who pushed for promotion to the Premier League last season, five years to end their stay in non-league. Exeter City and Lincoln City, now both established in League One, needed five and six years respectively to win promotion.
It took Stockport, last season’s National League champions, 11 years to get back to the Football League. Wrexham, one of the favourites this season thanks to the investment of Hollywood stars Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, are in their 15th year in the National League.
Few leagues in the world are this tricky to escape from. It is really hard to do. Much harder than avoiding the drop into non-league.
Getting relegated from League Two is hard, that’s the simple reality of it. A team needs to get itself into serious financial trouble or assemble a team so dreadfully awful they allow everyone else to relax with relegation a foregone conclusion.
Notts County are on course to reach 108 points, with Wrexham, in second, on for 105 points
The top four teams in the National League could all provide greater competition in a league up
Gillingham are that team this season. Six goals scored from 20 league games so far and rooted to the foot of the table. At their current points-per-game (PPG) they will finish the season with 32 points. Colchester United, by that same PPG metric, will finish even worse off, with just 31 points.
Note that 12 teams in the National League have already amassed 30 points or more at the mid-season mark. Note too that at least one of Notts County (108 points projected via PPG), Wrexham (105 points projected via PPG) and Chesterfield (95 points projected via PPG) will still be in the National League for 2023-24.
Outside of those three, look at Boreham Wood slicing their way through league teams en route to the FA Cup fifth round last season. They’ve already beaten Bristol Rovers this season to reach round three and you wouldn’t bet against them turning over Accrington Stanley in round four.
‘It’s a self-serving argument’ and ‘it’s turkeys needing to vote for Christmas’ are tired rhetorics now.
Any change to the EFL’s promotion and relegation system would need approval via a majority vote of the clubs – an undoubted sticking point.
But League Two needs to stop rewarding mediocrity and start increasing the competition. Enough is enough.
National League has had ‘constructive’ conversations over switch to three up, three down
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