Monsoon so far: skewed spread, reduced planting

How has the monsoon progressed so far?

The annual south-west monsoon is spread across four months—June to September—coinciding with the Kharif crop season, planting for which began earlier this month. India usually receives three-fourths of its annual rains during the monsoon season. This year, the monsoon’s arrival was delayed by a week. From 1-22 June, it has recorded a country-wide deficit of 31%, compared to the 50-year-average. The geographical distribution is skewed: about 47% of India’s geographical area has seen a deficit of 60% or more, while a fifth of its area has been lashed by excess rains—20% or more, compared to the normal.

What about planting of Kharif crops?

During the Kharif season farmers plant a variety of crops which include cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton. Till 16 June, the area planted with rice, the main cereal crop, was 15% less than last year, shows data from the agriculture ministry. Planting of pulses lagged 57%, while the area under oilseeds was 14% lower than last year. Overall, the area under all crops was 49% lower on-year. To be sure, coverage will improve as monsoon traverses through the country in a northerly direction. Farmers seldom leave their fields unsown, so mid-season prolonged dry spells are more of a risk to crop health and production.

Will crop production be impacted?

For crops like paddy, the planting window is open till end-July. Besides, most paddy farmers have access to irrigation, and are better placed financially to save their crops, using pumps to draw groundwater. However, small and marginal farmers growing pulses in rain-fed farms are at risk. So, non-cereal food crops are likely to be hit if rains continue to be deficient.

Is El Nino a major factor?

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in early June that there is a 70% chance of El Nino developing. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the emergence of El Nino conditions on 8 June, and said it will strengthen. El Nino often negatively impacts the monsoon season in India—with 9 out of 15 El Nino years recording deficit rains. India’s Met department said that El Nino conditions are likely to develop by July, which spells lower rains in July-August.

What about food inflation?

Consumer food inflation fell to 2.9% in May largely due to a sharp decline in edible oil and vegetable prices. But cereal inflation continues to be at a high of 13%. Retail prices of some pulses have soared beyond comfort—tur dal (pigeon pea) is 26% costlier than last year. Deficit rains will keep prices of these commodities high. A fall in production of home-grown oilseeds such as soybean, ground nut and sunflower is more likely to hit farmers than consumers—due to supplies of cheap imported cooking oils.

Updated: 22 Jun 2023, 11:55 PM IST