From the Brownlow Medal to Premiership favourites – your betting tips for the 2023 AFL season

It seems like just yesterday Joel Selwood was completing his AFL fairytale as the Cats lifted the Premiership Cup at the MCG – but the 2023 AFL season is upon us already. 

The hype is palpable leading into the traditional Thursday night opener between the Tigers and Blues -b ut who will be there at the end of the season when it matters most, and which players will stand out with brilliant seasons? 

For any fan who that likes to have a flutter, it’s time to find some serious betting value, from team to individual player markets. 

Here is Daily Mail Australia’s guide on where to find the best punts to take this season…  

Geelong celebrate their 2022 AFL Premiership triumph – can they go all the way again? Daily Mail Australia has you sorted for every betting tidbit you need ahead of the season opener

2023 Premiership winner 

Bet Right CEO Anthony Waller said the Tigers and Blues had been popular with punters to win the Premiership in the lead-up, coincidentally, to both teams opening the season with their traditional Thursday night clash at the MCG.

‘Two of the best backed teams have been Richmond ($11 into $8) and Carlton ($13 into $11), although momentum has slowed on the latter after some injuries over summer to key personnel including Sam Walsh,’ he said. 

‘Richmond have been bolstered by gun midfield signings Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto from GWS, and will be hoping to stay healthy this season, something they have struggled with the last two seasons. But their best is as good as anyone.

‘Carlton are currently Bet Right’s worst result, with hopes that an extra year of development for a relatively young squad can allow them to make a leap into the top eight.’ 

Will Jeremy Cameron and his Cats hold the Premiership cup aloft against this season? The punters certainly think they can

The Cats have only got better despite the retirement of legendary skipper Joel Selwood, adding boom youngsters Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn and Ollie Henry – and that’s reflected in the market.

‘Geelong are current premiership favourites and well supported at $6, looking to do what their previous dynasty could never do, and win back-to-back Premierships,’ said Waller. 

Their grand final opponents, however, are not faring as well in the markets despite a brilliant season from such a young side. 

‘Last year’s runner-up, Sydney, have been friendless so far, drifting from $6.50 to $10,’ said Waller.

‘A few niggles to some players and a much harder fixture this year are the likely reasons, as well as punter’s last memory being a very poor loss in the Grand Final.’

To Make/Miss the Top 4 

One of the better value bets might lie with the Demons ($6.50 to win the flag) paying $2.05 to make the Top 4, with further improvements on their roster (how on earth do they have the two greatest ruckmen of the last decade?!) giving them a huge chance on rebounding after a shocking end to the season. 

The Demons amazing list got even better with the addition of Brodie Grundy (left), a two-time All Australian, to partner the six-time All Australian, Max Gawn (right)

Most Losses 

What goes up must come down, and after a glittering generation of superstars, Hawthorn are now cellar dwellers again – and punters are piling in.

‘The only team anyone wants to back for the Most Losses market is Hawthorn, who have firmed from $6.50 to $3,’ said Waller.

‘Following a busy trade period where the Hawks lost more than they gained, they will field the youngest and least experienced team in the league. Its been one-way traffic for them to record under 6.5 wins as well.’

Brownlow Medal winner 

Of course one of the most popular betting markets each year is the Brownlow Medal – with interest right across the season, as punters eagerly try to snap up massive bargains. 

Given the market can change with the twist of a knee or the whack of a suspension, it’s something that always offers value to keen punters and those with their own voting tracker and spreadsheet. 

The earlier you place your bets, the more likely you are to nab significant value, save for injury and suspension – but that’s the price you pay for better odds than $2 favourite. 

Last year’s winner Patrick Cripps ($9) is understandably favourite, but a Bulldogs fan favourite has already been slashed in betting to sit equal with the champ at the top of the market. 

Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli is equal-favourite to win this season’s Brownlow Medal, and has always been an umpires darling

Last year’s Rising Star winner Nick Daicos has been crunched in betting for the Brownlow despite his tender age

‘Marcus Bontempelli the best backed of the favourites, opening at $21 pre trade week he now finds himself equal favourite at $9 with Carltons Patrick Cripps,’ said Waller. 

‘Injury hampered last year, a return to the midfield full time and playing without Josh Dunkley makes ‘Bont’ look primed for a big season.’ 

Intriguingly, one of the biggest firmers in the market has been for a 20-year-old son-of-a-gun who has played just 25 AFL games. 

‘There has been strong interest in Collingwood young gun Nick Daicos who opened at $51 and now finds himself at $26,’ said Waller of the Magpies superstar, who had one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory.

Smokeys could include Andrew Brayshaw ($12), who proved himself an umpires darling last season, accumulating 25 votes, while 2020 third place-getter Jack Steele ($17) could rebound after injury cruelled his season. 

Port young gun Connor Rozee ($29) could face an overcorrection from umpires after he was stunningly overlooked last year in favour of the mediocre Karl Amon. He’ll likely spend much more time in the Power midfield.

TIPS: Marcus Bontempelli ($9), Andrew Brayshaw ($12), Nick Daicos ($26) and Connor Rozee ($29)

Rising Star winner 

The Rising Star market has historically been a much easier betting proposition to pick, and it comes as no surprise that we will begin the season with the shortest priced favourite in history. 

Son-of-a-gun Will Ashcroft is one of the best midfield prospects in a generation, and has been smashed in the Rising Star betting

‘Number two (AFL draft) pick Will Ashcroft, son of Brisbane three-time Premiership player Marcus Ashcroft, opened as favourite at $4; but it has been one way traffic following some very impressive pre season form,’ said Waller.

‘He now finds himself $2.10, which would be the shortest price any rookie has been for this award in its history.’

Boom North Melbourne forward Harry Sheezel ($11) has delivered on his pre-draft hype with a strong preseason, while Cam Mackenzie ($15) already appears like he will be a crucial cog in the Hawthorn engine room.

TIPS: Harry Sheezel ($11) and Cam Mackenzie ($15)

Coleman Medal winner

The Coleman Medal is always a nightmare to pick, and can offer great value to punters. Tom Lynch ($8) is quite rightfully favourite after a brilliant few years at Richmond, and finished second last year despite missing four matches. 

He has been criticised for his goalkicking and dropped marks, but the prodigiously-talented Max King ($21) still managed to kick 52 goals last year in a very inconsistent team. 

Richmond star Tom Lynch will be serviced by one of the best midfields in the competition, and is set for another huge year in front of goals

The twin of Gold Coast forward Ben (also at $21) has taken giant leaps in improvement every year, and is a scary prospect at great value odds, particularly if the Saints can improve under Ross Lyon. 

TIPS: Tom Lynch ($9) and Max King ($21)  

Player Stats 

Stats lover and fantasy aficionados can bet on a number of markets that tap into their love of the nitty gritty of footy – where value also abounds. 

Most Disposals is, as always, a very open market which a huge group of players could potentially win. Lachie Neale ($12) will benefit enormously from having Josh Dunkley in the Lions engine room to take some heat off, while Jackson Macrae ($10) remains perenially underrated. 

Most Marks is probably the most intriguing of the lot, with intercept defenders now reigning supreme in the AFL. Rugged Fremantle halfback Luke Ryan presents massive value at $26 after taking 167 marks last year, while it is also hard to ignore the juicy $17 on offer for Lions gun Harris Andrews, despite a slightly down year last season.

Lachie Neale, pictured with his 2020 Brownlow Medal, somehow still presents great odds, and the midfield jet will be joined in the engine room this season by Josh Dunkley – taking some of the heat off him

There’s a few bulls in the league, so Most Tackles is another open market headed by Saints inside jet Jack Steele ($5). Matt Rowell ($10) spends game-time almost solely on the inside and had the fourth-most on average last season. Swans youngster James Rowbottom ($13) also looks nice, and expecting another strong year for the ball-winning midfielder.  

To Make All-Australian team

Yes, you really can bet on anything, and Making the All-Australian team, grouped by positions, is another player prop market with potential for good value. The favourites speak for themselves, but with injury an ever-present danger, betting around them offers good returns.  

Defenders: The aforementioned Luke Ryan ($5) will prove to be yet another important cog in the Docker defence, but it’s Giants key man Sam Taylor ($5) who keeps flying under everyone’s radar. One of the best lock-down defenders in the competition, and the reigning All Australia centre half-back.

Midfielders: We’ve mentioned him in the Brownlow preview, and Connor Rozee ($3.50) was rewarded for his brilliant year for the Power by being named on the interchange. Expecting him to spend more time in the middle, and he is a genuine matchwinner. Callum Mills ($4) often escapes attention because he is up in Sydney, but he is one of the best midfielders in the game, and the unassuming utility often doesn’t cop the attention of his more high-profile teammates. 

Forwards: Betting around the big men, and going with Toby Greene ($4.25) to nab a spot in the forward line. The new Giants skipper just needs to stay on the park to be one of the best in the league, and a lot will rest of his very capable shoulders. Not hard to imagine Dustin Martin ($6) bouncing back at a big price, either. 

Toby Greene soars through the air on the back of Lewis Young last season. The fiery Giants skipper is one of the best forwards in the competition – if he can stay on the park

To Make/Miss the Top 8 

It’s not all about the individuals of course, with the Top 8 market, (both missing and making finals have markets), beginning to heat up. 

Waller said there was a very surprising team that has been smashed in betting despite finishing second-last with just two wins last year. 

‘There has been optimism in West Coast bouncing back this season after a horror few years since Covid began,’ he said. 

‘Punters have backed them to make finals at $26, all the way down to $9 – but it looks a tough ask though still.’

TIP: Collingwood to MISS the Top 8 ($2.50) 

In a year that promises to be as close as ever, head to betright.com.au for all your AFL round-by-round betting markets and futures throughout the season.

All odds correct as of 10am, March 15.