EXPLAINED: Why China May Be Prepping For A Future With Taliban As Militants Overrun Afghanistan
Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city, has now fallen to the Taliban, as have close to a dozen other urban centres and provincial capitals. The news of Kandahar’s capture was accompanied by a report that China is ready to extend recognition to Taliban should it decimate the government forces, something that looks increasingly likely. Chinese leaders have already hosted a major Taliban delegation and described the group as a pivotal force in Afghanistan. Here’s why China and Taliban may find that they need each other.
Why China Is Seen As Leaning Towards Taliban?
A report in the US News & World Report on August 12 said that “China is prepared to recognise the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan if it succeeds in toppling the Western-backed government in Kabul”. The major ramification of such a move — the report did not quote any Chinese government officials — is that it would weaken “the Biden administration’s remaining source of leverage over the insurgent network”.
In fact, US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is reported to have told Taliban that if they seize power by force in Afghanistan, the group will not receive international recognition. But China’s willingness to court the Islamists may mean that the US threats may not have much of an impact in maaking them commit wholeheartedly to the peace process.
In any case, in hosting the senior Taliban delegation — including its co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar — in the Chinese city of Tianjin, the country has shown that it is ready to engage with the militants. Experts say that while Beijing would prefer a peaceful end to the crisis in Afghanistan — it has made attempts to broker peace between the Afghan government and Taliban — its courting of the Islamist group is based on ground realities where the longevity of the democratically elected government in Kabul is under serious doubt.
What Can The Taliban Do For China?
There is much about the Taliban that would make China uncomfortable. First, there is its restive Xinjiang province — where it is reportedly holding more than 1 million Muslims in internment camps — which shares a slender border with Afghanistan. China fears that militants can use Afghan territory as a base to foment trouble on its soil.
Then there is Beijing’s big power ambitions, the centrepiece of which is the Belt and Road Initiative, which relies on massive communication and infrastructure projects passing through Central Asia. An Afghanistan convulsed by fighting will not be conducive to its plans to expand its influence in the region.
The solution to both, for Beijing, is a friendly government in Kabul. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the Tianjin meet that “Taliban are a pivotal military and political force in Afghanistan and are expected to play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation and reconstruction” of the country.
Further, Beijing hopes the Taliban will “deal resolutely” with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China sees as having a hand in driving trouble in Xinjiang province. [The] delegation assured China that they will not allow anyone to use Afghan soil against China,” a Taliban spokesman said after the Tianjin meet.
What Can China Do For The Taliban?
But it is not all one-way traffic between Beijing and Taliban. As it firms up its hold on Afghanistan and drives a hard bargain at negotiations with the government in Kabul led by Ashraf Ghani, the Islamist group is already looking to a future where international legitimacy and assistance would be key for it to accomplish the task of reconstruction in Afghanistan.
The government in Kabul doubtless has the same goals for the country, but with Taliban seeing it as a western imposition backed by the US, experts fear that the prospects of a political solution to the Afghan problem are bleak. To that extent, China has already said that it is happy to let the Afghan people sort out their internal matters and wants only to extend the help that they seek from it.
“China also reiterated its commitment of continuation of their assistance with Afghans and said they will not interfere in Afghanistan’s issues but will help to solve the problems and restoration of peace in the country,” the Taliban spokesman said.
A major takeaway for the Taliban from its meeting with China’s foreign minister is the optics of a what is widely regarded as a pariah group being hosted by one of the biggest global powers. While the US was finally forced to come to the talks table with the Taliban, the western world may still retain a deep discomfort of the Islamists and their commitment to ideals of rights and democracy, which may not, however, be big considerations that come in the way of Beijing’s engagement with the Taliban.
How Big Is The Economic Factor In China Wooing Taliban?
China’s global superpower ambitions begin in Asia and, to ensure that key projects lined up in the continent go through, it would seek stability in Afghanistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key piece of infrastructure projects in Asia but Chinese nationals have kept coming under attack from radical groups in Pakistan, including the Pakistani Taliban, and Beijing would be looking to an understanding with the Afghan Taliban as a means to protect its interests in the region.
Experts at the think tank European Council On Foreign Relations said that though China has “substantial commercial and economic interests in the wider region, but they are minimal in Afghanistan itself”.
While Beijing has made investments in Afghanistan, experts say that the two of the biggest ones — the Aynak copper mine and the Amu Darya energy projects — have made little headway. While Afghanistan is said to be sitting on deposits of gold, iron, copper, zinc, lithium and other rare-earth metals worth an estimated $1 trillion-$3 trillion, China would first want to see peace and stability return to the country before making any new bids at economic engagement, experts believe.
What It Means For India?
The Taliban delegation’s China visit happened on the same day that Blinken had travelled to India. New Delhi shares the US’ vision for the future of Afghanistan, which means that it will be wary of Taliban seizing control if the country. A democratic regime that respects women’s rights and cracks down on terror groups would be the best-case scenario for India but the Taliban’s resurgence can put paid to such hopes.
“No one has an interest in a military takeover of the country by the Taliban, the restoration of an Islamic emirate,” Blinken said in New Delhi, but with US seemingly distancing itself and China now jumping into the picture, India might find itself caught on the wrong foot in Afghanistan.
A report said “if the Taliban do topple the US-backed central government (in Kabul), China could gain a strategic corridor allowing it and long-time ally Pakistan to bring further pressure against common rival India”.
(An earlier version of this piece was published on August 3)
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