Explained: Nvidia’s road to trillion-dollar market valuation  

The US chipmaking company Nvidia Corp on Tuesday entered the elite Wall Street Club as its market valuation breached $1 trillion.

The gaming and chipmaking company’s shares rose 3.8 per cent in trading before the bell on Tuesday, putting its value at $1.03 trillion, making it the first-ever chipmaking company to join the elusive club.

The shares of the firm, which makes graphics processing units (GPUs) that help power generative artificial intelligence platforms, soared after Nvidia said that the AI boom is translating into record sales, as it reported a quarterly profit of more than $2 billion and revenue of $7 billion, defying Wall Street expectations.

Rivalling Nvidia is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the next largest chipmaker globally, which is valued at about $535 billion. 

Before Nvidia, Mark Zuckerberg-owned Meta Platforms Inc had briefly clinched the trillion-dollar market capitalization milestone in 2021, before its stocks tumbled, and its valuation dwindled to about $670 billion as of its last close.

Fewer than 10 companies have achieved this milestone. Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com Inc are the other US companies that are part of the trillion-dollar club.

What does Nvidia do?

Nvidia primarily makes graphic cards and accounts for about 80 per cent of GPUs produced worldwide, Reuters news agency reported.

The chips are used to handle the math needed for AI computing. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, for instance, was created with thousands of Nvidia AI-optimized GPUs.

A new wave of generative AI from the likes of OpenAI and Google has been a boon for Nvidia, which had its stock price jump more than 180 per cent so far this year. 

The company pointed out last week that the rapid rise of AI technology propelled its earnings, and as a result, it reported a stronger-than-expected forecast for the second quarter, noting that it expects sales of about $11 billion compared with estimates of $7.15 billion.

On Monday, the company also made a series of announcements on new products, including a new supercomputer meant to help establish the next generation of AI applications.

Nvidia’s projections in 2024

For the second quarter of 2024, Nvidia forecasted $11 billion in sales, expecting 50 per cent higher sales than the consensus estimates of $7.15 billion.

The Reuters report noted that this forecast left Wall Street analysts astounded, with many labelling it as “unfathomable” and “cosmological.”

Analysts rushed to increase their price targets for the company, with the highest valuation reaching around $1.6 trillion, placing Nvidia on par with Google-parent Alphabet.

Experts, however, have warned that a high valuation would create substantial pressure on Nvidia to consistently deliver strong growth, potentially resulting in share price volatility.

Nvidia’s shift from gaming

Historically, Nvidia has been associated with gaming, but that perception has changed recently. Nvidia’s GPU plays a crucial role in generative AI platforms such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard.

The emergence of cryptocurrency mining and AI applications has disrupted the notion that GPUs are primarily for gaming, leading to a significant surge in share prices for GPU manufacturers and suppliers like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC in recent months.

Intel, on the other hand, has been facing difficulties with inventory management and development hurdles. Since its primary aim has been to dominate the central processing unit (CPU) chip market, Intel has not been able to draw the same level of investor interest as GPU manufacturers have had amid the recent surge in demand for graphic cards, Reuters news agency reported.

Also, Nvidia’s foray into making chips for data centres is threatening Intel’s Advanced Micro Devices Inc\s market dominance.

By showing that Nvidia’s processors can deftly handle massive AI workloads, the company has made quick inroads.

It’s now poised to overtake Intel in data-centre sales — an unthinkable feat just a few years ago.

Nvidia’s rise

The company was founded in 1993 by American-Taiwanese engineer Jen-Hsun “Jensen” Huang, initially a star in the video game world.

The Silicon Valley-based company has long been known for producing graphic cards that render high image quality and completely cut down response lag time for gamers.

Their GPUs have been known to deftly handle complex simulations, effectively making them superior to conventional computer chips when it comes to graphics, as well as the kind of processing involved with artificial intelligence.

“Nvidia has become synonymous with AI,” independent tech analyst Rob Enderle told AFP news agency.

The company “has been investing in the AI boom for almost two decades. They saw an opportunity, and now everybody else is chasing it,” he added.

The rise of Nvidia falls in stark contrast with that of other chipmakers, who are predicting a slowdown in the market this year, mainly due to lower demand for personal computers.

This trend has led to a sharp drop in Nvidia’s video game revenues, but growth in AI-driven data centre activity has paused their slowdown.

(With inputs from agencies)

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