Tottenham Hotspur secured the biggest bargain of the transfer window in signing Rodrigo Betancur for an up-front fee of £16M from Juventus, half what he was worth, analysts have calculated.
In contrast, Everton paid almost three-times the market value for Nathan Patterson, who signed for the Toffees from Rangers for £12M.
And Newcastle United and Aston Villa were the overall winners of the window, dramatically boosting their chances of survival, or a seventh-place finish, respectively.
Sours’ signing of Rodrigo Bentancur was best value deal in the transfer window say analysts
Recruitment analysts, the Twenty First Group, have crunched the numbers to identify the successes and failures in a busy month, which saw English clubs spend £295M on players.
‘According to our player valuation model, Tottenham’s signing of Bentancur was the most undervalued deal of the window in the Premier League, reportedly costing around half of our €40m (£34M) valuation for the Juventus player,’ said Omar Chaudhuri, the group’s chief intelligence officer.
‘Acquiring a first-choice player from a Champions League last 16 team normally comes at a premium.
Everton’s signing of Nathan Patterson has been picked out as above the going rate
Bentancur joined Spurs on a four-year contract for £16M plus add-ons after a successful spell in Turin that saw him win five trophies – including three straight Serie A titles, making a total of 181 appearances.
However, his pedigree does not guarantee success in the Premier League. The Uruguayan central midfielder was picked out along with fellow new boy, Dejan Kulusevski, by Ex-Tottenham boss Tim Sherwood following Tottenham’s 3-2 home defeat on Wednesday.
Sherwood insisted the pair insisting ‘changed the game’ for the worse, after coming on as substitutes.
Newcastle’s acquisition of Burnley’s Chris Wood was the shrewdest business of the window
The Twenty First Group works with many of the leading sides across Europe to help them make strategic decisions on the future of their clubs, including signing players, and the company has developed accurate modelling techniques to support their work.
Everton’s signing of Nathan Patterson has also been picked out by the analysts, but for being above the going rate for the young full back.
The defender fetched Rangers a club record fee of £12M when the 20-year-old signed a deal with the Toffees, until June 2027
‘Everton’s purchase of Nathan Patterson reflected the club’s own estimations of the Scot’s potential. Our model valued him at €5m (£4M), far below the reported €14m (£12M) paid,’ said Chaudhuri.
Overall, the Twenty First Group concluded Newcastle were the winners of the window
‘Patterson had played less than 600 professional league minutes for Rangers, and while expectations are high it is rare to see such inexperienced players transact for such sums.’
Meanwhile, Newcastle and Aston Villa have been identified as the overall winners in the January transfer business.
Newcastle’s acquisition of defenders Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Matt Target, midfielder Bruno Guimaraes and striker Chris Wood, for a total of £94M has cut the percentage probability of Toon going down from 63 per cent to 48 per cent.
Wood has had a dramatic impact on Newcastle’s survival prospects. His arrival from Burnley is estimated to have boosted Toon’s chances of staying up by seven percentage points, and wiped eight percentage points off the Clarets’ Premier League survival probability.
While Aston Villa also has success signing Philippe Coutinho on loan from Barcelona
‘The signing of Chris Wood from Burnley could prove to be their shrewdest piece of business,’ said Chaudhuri.
Even so, the Twenty First Group still have Newcastle, Watford and Norwich to go down, with Burnley narrowly more likely to survive and Everton looking relatively comfortable.
The calculations are based on a model that uses historical results to understand the strength of all teams’ squads and manager, and simulates the remainder of the league season, accounting for the difficulty of fixtures to come for each team.
Newcastle’s hopes of survival have been raised by two recent wins, over Leeds United and Everton, which has moved the club out of the relegation zone.
The analysts said the £12M fee for Patterson was three times more than market value
| CLUB | BEFORE WINDW | AFTER WINDOW |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | 15% | 18% |
| Burnley | 40% | 44% |
| Newcastle United | 63% | 48% |
| Watford | 75% | 77% |
| Norwich City | 89% | 91% |
| Source: Twenty First Group |
Aston Villa are also winners. The Villans secured Philippe Coutinho on loan from Barcelona, Lucas Digne for £25M from Everton and Calum Chambers from Arsenal.
As a result, the analysts calculate Villa have almost doubled their chances of finishing seventh.
‘The arrivals of Coutinho, Digne and Calum Chambers have improved Villa’s chances of a top-half finish from 49% to 67%,’ revealed Chaudhuri.
‘They also have an almost 10% chance of finishing 7th, which is now likely to become a European place after Liverpool and Chelsea confirmed their places in the EFL Cup final.’
Villa currently sit in 11th place, nine points behind Spurs in seventh, who have a game in hand.
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