QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (12th overall)
What PFF says: “Allen’s 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate was twice as high as Joe Burrow‘s and Mahomes’ last season. As physically gifted as any quarterback in the game, Allen also produced a league-best 7.6% big-time throw rate and is a formidable rushing threat.”
What we say: There’s no denying Allen’s skills as a rusher, but he ran for just two more yards than Hurts with six fewer touchdowns in 2022. Allen failed to throw a touchdown against Cincinnati in this year’s divisional round while Hurts fell three points shy of the Lombardi Trophy. Allen is a great player but needs to play better in the postseason.
QB Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers (35th overall)
What PFF says: “He has now had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%) in each of the past two seasons, and the Chargers have brought in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to try and tap into his full potential in 2023.”
What we say: Actually, Herbert had four more interceptions than Hurts in 2022. He also has just one playoff appearance, a one-point loss to Jacksonville last year. Is it fair to expect more from a quarterback that shares the field with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams? We think so.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (41st overall)
What PFF says: “He was in the middle of his best-graded season since his unanimous MVP year when an injury took him down last season, and now we get to see what he can achieve in an offense that will be more prepared to let him spread the ball around in the passing game.”
What we say: Injuries matter. Jackson hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year, missing 10 games over the past two seasons. He’s thrown for 3,000 yards or more just once in five years. His career-best 3,127 yards were good enough to win the NFL MVP in 2019, but are less than Hurts’ career-high of 3,701 last year.
QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (45th overall)
PFF says: “Rodgers is just a year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons, but at his age, any downtick in performance immediately gets people predicting a decline.”
What we say: Count us among the doubters. While PFF blames a lack of talented receivers for Rodgers’s struggles, we see self-inflicted wounds. Rodgers never missed an opportunity to blame his wide receivers in Green Bay. If Rodgers was a better teammate, maybe a talented wide receiver like Christian Watson has a better start to 2022
Hurts, on the other hand, was so well-liked by his teammates, Philadelphia had no problem releasing Carson Wentz after giving him a four-year, $128M contract. We’re not saying that Rodgers isn’t a top 50 player, but if intangibles matter, Hurts belongs on any list that includes Rodgers.
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