A disastrous exit by US troops looks set to be repeated in this country, where Russia and China have growing vital interests.
Remember Syria? Remember Islamic State? The United States wants to withdraw its remaining troops from what was a brutal but temporary extremist empire.
Now, the Middle East wonders if it will become the next Afghanistan.
Only a few hundred US troops remain in eastern Syria. Just as there was only 900 in Afghanistan before the decision to retreat.
Like Afghanistan, the Arab world now fears the looming loss of this small but significant “trigger” force could mark the return of Islamic State.
“Arab leaders no doubt remember that former US President Donald Trump declared victory against the Islamic State in December 2018,” says Chatham House Middle East analyst Neil Quilliam.
“Given US President Joe Biden’s policy toward Afghanistan, predicated on a similar declaration of ‘mission accomplished,’ they will likely prepare for Washington’s exit from Syria. After all, it’s hard to find anyone in the US administration who publicly argues Syria is a vital US interest.”
And that loss of confidence has weakened the US’ diplomatic strength.
“In the Middle East, a diminished Washington – in which confidence in its ability to stand by its commitments has been shaken, if not shattered – will find that its authority will be much questioned,” argues LaTrobe University’s Tony Walker.
The story so far …
Syria is a mess. Just a few short years ago, most of its eastern provinces were part of the self-proclaimed Caliphate of the Islamic State. An international coalition needed years of air strikes, special forces actions, and troop occupations to roll them back.
Before that, Syria was at war with itself.
Dictator Bashar al-Assad attempted to crush pro-democracy demonstrations in 2011 violently. His people were protesting corruption and his repressive regime.
Now Syria’s an international battleground.
Assad allowed Russia to establish large air and naval bases on his territory in return for protection. Iran has its forces in its territory. As does Turkey. And the United States.
It’s a boiling cauldron of racial, religious and commercial tensions.
The Kurdish minority group, so central to the defeat of the Islamic State, are deemed terrorists by Turkey. They’re also central to the Assad-opposing Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Palestinian refugees forced out of their homes by decades of Israeli occupation are still being incited into acts of terrorism by the militant Hamas movement. Moscow wants to increase its share of its resources and strategic position.
And everywhere, Syrians are still fighting Syrians.
What’s next?
US Marine General Frank McKenzie visited Syria in May. Even then, he was constantly confronted with questions about Washington’s resolve.
“The Middle East writ broadly is an area of intense competition between the great powers. And I think that as we adjust our posture in the region, Russia and China will be looking very closely to see if a vacuum opens that they can exploit,” McKenzie conceded.
“I think they see the United States shifting posture to look at other parts of the world, and they sense there may be an opportunity there.”
He offered no reassurance that the Biden White House would maintain its presence. None has been offered since.
“Every corner of the Middle East and North Africa will be touched in some way by the failure of American authority in Afghanistan, the longest war in its history,” argues Walker.
“This comes at a time when China and Russia are testing American resolve globally. In the region itself, Turkey and Iran are already seeking to fill a vacuum exposed by an American failure.”
Russia is a shadow of the former Soviet Union. It is struggling under international sanctions brought down after it invaded Georgia and Ukraine.
China, however, is determined to match – and succeed – the United States as the world’s guiding force.
To them, any US withdrawal will be seen as an opportunity. But they’re not the only ones set to step in to fill the vacuum.
“The Taliban success in Afghanistan will also have implications,” Walkers says.
“In both Iraq and parts of Syria where the US maintains a military presence, the American exit will be unsettling.”
An Arab solution?
Quilliam says the Arab world is jostling to have a say in Syria’s future.
Some are lobbying Washington to lift sanctions. Others are trying to find alternative ways to initiate a reconstruction process.
“However, each Arab state’s motivation differs, and the initiatives they have undertaken are better considered ‘prepositioning’ moves ahead of a forthcoming political settlement rather than definitive steps toward normalising relations with Assad under the current status quo,” Quilliam says.
Not all Arab states can stomach Assad. But they appear to be recognising any path forward requires an Arab effort.
“After a decade of conflict, Gulf Arab states are seeking ways to develop an Arab solution to the war and, by doing so, bring Syria back into the so-called Arab fold,” he said.
“That’s a tall order and, in truth, highly unlikely to happen.”
But the sudden realisation that Washington’s patience is not eternal has changed things.
“Working toward that goal gives Gulf Arab states a head start should the United States beat a hasty retreat or reach an agreement with Russia on the shape of a political settlement,” Quilliam writes.
“Although those options may have looked outlandish a few years back, they are beginning to look slightly more realistic now.”
Graveyard of empires
“Given Biden’s hard-nosed realism in Afghanistan, it’s easy to imagine the president concluding US troops in northeast Syria don’t serve US interests,” argues Quilliam.
But avoiding a repeat of the Kabul airlift fiasco will require some effort.
That may require Washington to accept Moscow’s ambitions for Syrian resources and bases. Most Arab nations have good relations with President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic state.
It also will likely entail some concessions to the Assad regime’s access to power. That may be harder for Washington and some of Syria’s neighbours to swallow.
“The debacle of the US exit from Kabul and its sheer inhumanity may persuade Biden, however, that reaching a deal with Russia is better than simply walking away and abandoning its allies in Syria,” he concludes.
A war-weary Washington has been difficult to predict. It’s been taking arbitrary decisions and leaving surprised allies to like it or lump it.
But it seems surprised at the immense damage being done to its reputation.
“In this next phase, America will no doubt pull back from all but its most pressing Middle East commitments,” Walker believes.
“This will be a time for it to reflect on what lessons might be learned from the painful Afghanistan experience.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel
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