The first NFL contest this Sunday will be the AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs, and there is prop betting value for the Kansas City offense this weekend.
We touched on the Bengals side already, so go check out our two Cincinnati props. Now, we turn our attention to the Chiefs, coming off one of the best football games in NFL history.
Kansas City Chiefs props
The Chiefs are averaging the second-most pass attempts per game this year (39.9), a number that has gone up to 42.7 over their last three.
On the other end is a Bengals defense that has struggled with slowing down the pass, seeing the fourth-most pass attempts in the league in the process. DVOA pegs Cincy’s secondary as 24th in the NFL, and we all know how dynamic Patrick Mahomes is.
So, it’s the passing game we’ll be targeting on the Chiefs side.
It doesn’t seem to matter much which position you focus on; the Bengals defense has been generous to all three when it comes to receiving success.
Byron Pringle over 3.5 receptions (+105 DraftKings)
That intersection of passing volume really sticks out to me, and I want to find a volume prop to accompany it.
Byron Pringle certainly appears to have the WR2 role secured in Kansas City, and I really like this spot at +105.
Pringle has five receptions in three straight games, with seven or more targets in each. He’s hit this over in four of five and clearly has the attention of Mahomes.
The Bengals allow the ninth-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and if they attempt to put more attention on Tyreek Hill, Pringle should be able to capitalize.
I like the game’s volume, I like the consistent hit-rate and I like Pringle.
Patrick Mahomes over 289.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
I’ve written this about Joe Burrow, but this is another instance where I love all the pass-catchers from Kansas City and just can’t settle on one to have the big game.
Instead, we pivot to the quarterback again. You don’t need me telling you how great Mahomes is, but I will note that he’s thrown for 404 and 378 yards in the two playoff games thus far.
I think the only concern around this total is a Chiefs blowout, but I’m optimistic that Burrow and the Bengals can score enough to keep this relatively close into the second half.
The Bengals have allowed the third-most passes of 20-plus yards this season, which tells me Mahomes should have no issues picking apart this secondary.
He can get to this total in a hurry, and averaging 42.3 attempts per game in his past three, he should have the volume to blow by it.
The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most passing yards to QBs this season, so I expect Mahomes to have a big day in his fourth straight AFC Championship Game.
For more on this game, I made a Same Game Parlay bet that includes a pick on the winner and the total. Enjoy this weekend, and stay tuned for Niners-Rams props.
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