WTC final scenario: Can India qualify if they draw 4th Test vs AUS and Sri Lanka beat New Zealand in 1st Test?

After three Test matches plagued by dust bowls, the India-Australia series finally saw a batting paradise at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. However, this development may not necessarily benefit the hosts, as there is a World Test Championship (WTC) final qualification at stake.

The Narendra Modi Stadium’s pitch was a welcome change from the previous matches, which were characterized by dry and dusty conditions that favored the spinners. The batsmen finally had a chance to showcase their skills, and the match was a thrilling display of runs and wickets.

The head coach of Team India, Rahul Dravid, had previously stated that the decision to play on turners and result-oriented surfaces was made with the WTC final qualification in mind. However, the ICC rated the Indore pitch as poor, prompting a change in strategy. As a result, a batting-friendly pitch was laid out, and Australia capitalized on it after winning the toss, scoring an impressive 347 runs in just four sessions. Usman Khawaja batted brilliantly, scoring 150 runs, while Cameron Green achieved his maiden Test ton. 

India’s fate in the WTC final hangs in the balance, and the stakes are high. The pitch conditions and Australia’s impressive form have made the task at hand even more challenging. To secure their spot in the final, India must win the ongoing match, as relying on other results is not an option. A win would see their PCT soar to 62.5, while a loss would result in a significant drop to 56.9. In the event of a draw, India’s PCT would stand at 58.7. The pressure is on, and India must rise to the occasion to secure their place in the WTC final.

Hence, India’s fate will not be in their hands if the match result is anything other than a win for the hosts. Currently, Sri Lanka is 256 runs ahead in the series opener against New Zealand in Christchurch and could very well emerge victorious in the ongoing Test. Sri Lanka’s PCT (percentage of points earned) currently stands at 53.33. If Sri Lanka wins the series opener, their PCT will rise to 57.58. However, for Sri Lanka to have a chance at qualifying for the WTC (World Test Championship) final, they must win both Test matches. Only then will their PCT rise to 61.1.

If Sri Lanka fails to win at least one of the two upcoming matches against New Zealand, their chances of qualifying for the final will be significantly reduced. However, if they manage to win one match and lose the other, their PCT (percentage of points earned) will be 52.77. In the event that they win one match and draw the other, their PCT will increase to 55.55. 

It’s worth noting that even if India loses the Ahmedabad Test or the game ends in a draw, they still have a chance to qualify for the final. Therefore, Sri Lanka must put forth their best effort in the upcoming matches to secure their spot in the final.

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