Will Lyman Defeat Push Putin to Launch Nukes? A Look at Russian Nuclear Policy and its Existing Arsenal

As the spectre of a nuclear war looms over Europe, much has been discussed about what happens if Russian president Vladimir Putin decides to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.

Putin never directly said he would use nuclear weapons but said Russia has weapons of mass destruction which will be used if Russia identifies a threat to its territory.

Russia is also likely to be angered after Ukraine claimed that Russian soldiers were forced to retreat from Ukrainian city Lyman. Lyman is in Donetsk and acted as a logistics hub for the Russian forces.

The fall of Lyman forced Chechen leader and hardline Moscow ally, Ramzan Kadyrov to push for using low-yield nuclear weapons, news agency BBC reported.

Even though Kadyrov does not dictate the Kremlin’s nuclear policy and Vladimir Putin does, his comments are similar to what the Russian president said last month during an address to Russian citizens.

There are four instances which define Russia’s nuclear policy, according to the BBC. They are –

1. Russia may use nuclear missiles if ballistic missiles attack Russian territories or territories of its allies
2. Russia may use nuclear missiles if nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia or its allies
3. Russia may use nuclear missiles if there is an attack of critical governmental or military infrastructure which will threaten its nuclear capability
4. Russia may use nuclear missiles if there is aggression against Russia through the use of conventional weapons which puts its existence in a state of jeopardy

The Russian president said he was not ‘bluffing’ without explicitly saying that he would use nukes in Ukraine. However, his predecessor and top Russian National Security Council member Dmitry Medvedev said Russia can use its nuclear weapons if threatened.

The US said it is taking the nuclear threat seriously but instead of pushing for diplomacy several commentators of the US and the US president Biden himself have been hawkish on Russia. Biden said last week that NATO and its allies will defend every inch of NATO territory and David Petraeus said Russian troops would be decimated in a US-led NATO offensive if Putin uses nuclear weapons.

How Many Nuclear Warheads Does Russia Have?

The BBC in a report citing the Federation of American Scientists said Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads. But there are 1,500 such warheads that are ready to be retired or dismantled.

This leaves Russia with 4,500 nuclear warheads of which 1,185 are intercontinental ballistic missiles. There are 800 submarine-launched ballistic missiles and 580 nuclear weapons which can be air-launched.

There are 1,935 missiles barring those mentioned above which are smaller, less destructive nuclear weapons for short-range use on battlefields or at sea – the ones Kadyrov was apparently referring to following the fall of Lyman.

Military experts told the BBC that there are 1,500 Russian warheads at missile and bomber bases or on submarines at sea.

Read the Latest News and Breaking News here