As we approach the 2023 Oscars, a surprisingly large number of the night’s biggest races are still too close to call. Here’s the Vogue verdict on who will ultimately win, who should win, and who should’ve been a contender in all of the top eight categories.
Best Picture
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who should’ve been a contender: RRR
The multiverse-spanning, nerve-jangling, heartwarming action epic is now a shoo-in for best picture, having scooped the top prizes at the Critics Choice Awards, Independent Spirit Awards, SAGs, and the Producers Guild of America Awards. Hot on its heels is the BAFTA best-film winner All Quiet on the Western Front, as well as Top Gun: Maverick, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, and Tár, though it seems unlikely that any of them will manage to catch up at this point. Nor should they—the Daniels’s blockbuster would be an incredibly worthy winner that the Academy could feel good about. We’d love to have seen RRR in the mix too, though—the Telugu sensation which, controversially, wasn’t chosen as India’s entry for best international feature but is widely expected to pick up the Oscar for best original song for “Naatu Naatu.”
Best Director
Who will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who should win: Todd Field for Tár
Who should’ve been a contender: Charlotte Wells for Aftersun
After their victory at the Directors Guild of America Awards, the Daniels look unstoppable—and have more than earned their Oscars with their thrillingly innovative work. If anyone can cause an upset, it’s industry veteran and Academy favorite Steven Spielberg, for his semi-autobiographical family drama The Fabelmans (he’s taken home this statuette twice before, albeit more than two decades ago). However, it would be more exciting to see Todd Field spoil for the meticulously directed Tár. There’s a small chance that the film, with its six nominations, could leave the ceremony empty-handed—that’d be a gross injustice and this is perhaps the prize it most deserves. Equally deserving is Charlotte Wells, who received the DGA Award for best first film with her stunningly realized debut, Aftersun, and ought to have landed a spot on this all-male shortlist.
Best Actor
Who will win: Austin Butler for Elvis
Who should win: Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin
Who should’ve been a contender: Jeremy Pope for The Inspection
Elvis’s Austin Butler and The Whale’s Brendan Fraser are still neck and neck—with the former having snagged the Golden Globe and BAFTA, and the latter the SAG and Critics Choice Award—but we think Butler has what it takes to go all the way. Eight-time nominee Elvis was more widely embraced by the Academy than the more divisive The Whale, and Butler seems the more likely winner considering the number of showy portrayals of real-life figures that have been rewarded in recent years (Will Smith’s Richard Williams in King Richard, Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, Gary Oldman’s Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour). It would be satisfying to see Colin Farrell come from behind and take it, though, for his quieter, endearing turn as the simple-minded Pádraic in The Banshees of Inisherin—and would’ve been even more so to see Jeremy Pope’s sensitive, layered performance in The Inspection recognized by the voting body.
Best Actress
Who will win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who should win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who should’ve been a contender: Danielle Deadwyler for Till
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