Besides, Baloch separatists and the people of Balochistan are up in arms against neo-colonial ambitions of China in the form of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to exploit the natural resources of the province to the exclusion of the people there. Rather than realising the gravity of what Pakistan is facing today, its ruling political elite is busy jostling for power and positioning itself for the next elections scheduled to be held later this year.
It’s no different with Pakistan’s permanent establishment, the army. Its public pronouncements notwithstanding, the army is back with its old games of selecting compliant politicians to manipulate domestic polity ahead of elections and taking control of the foreign policy, including negotiations with international lenders.
Right now, the only option for Pakistan is to ensure that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases the last tranche ($1.1 billion) of the current programme to avoid a default. But the usual anti-people conditionalities of the IMF demanding increase in energy prices and raising taxation could further add to the turmoil in the country. Prime Minister Sheh baz Sharif is left with little option but to either comply or pack up. The army is ready to bring in an interim setup for taking these unpopular decisions as also negotiate with the lender for the next programme.
But the IMF will not move an inch till it gets a nod from Washington. While the priority of the Biden administration continues to be the Ukraine conflict, it also realises that Afghanistan could once again emerge as a base for terror groups inimical to the US’ interests. Irrespective of wishful thinking in the Indian security establishment, Pakistan would certainly be bailed out by the US and its allies, as they can’t let a nucleararmed Pakistan to default or fail.
Those in doubt should see the recent statements of the US state department that Pakistan was their main partner in the region and warned of action if international terrorists regroup in Afghanistan. On economy, it said that Washington was not only aware of Pakistan’s financial issues, but was also backing efforts to rebuild national economy.
But Pakistan’s joining hands with the US is coming at a huge cost. As the US drones fly over Afghanistan, it is no more a secret as to which country is allowing its airspace for the same. The killing of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul last year in a US drone strike blew apart whatever secrecy Pakistan establishment was trying to maintain. At that time, Mohammad Yaqub, defence minister of the interim Taliban government, had accused Pakistan of giving overflight access to the US drones and warned both Washington and Islamabad against violating Afghanistan’s territorial integrity. The Pakistan army didn’t realise the gravity of annoying the Afghan Taliban. One is not sure whether it lacked proper understanding of the relationship between Afghan Taliban and the TTP or relied heavily on its usual double game that it believes to have perfected. Now, it faces a combined fury of Afghan Taliban and a surging TTP.
The Pakistani security apparatus was horrified when it realised that in its recent offensive, TTP was using weapons and equipment like thermal sights left behind by Americans in Afghanistan. So, who gave TTP access to these weapons? Besides, who set free more than 2,000 TTP fighters lodged in Afghan jails in August 2021 without handing over even one to Pakistan? With the economy in dumps, the army doesn’t even have sufficient funds to launch operations against the TTP and Baloch separatists. And it can’t anymore blame India for supporting these groups in Afghanistan.
Even China read the situation wrong while drawing up its ambitious flagship programme, CPEC, that largely passes through Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, a region worst affected by domestic turmoil. Neither its investment nor its personnel are safe anymore in Pakistan. Angry people in Gwadar, Balochistan are already blaming Chinese colonisation that has affected their main livelihood of fishing and restricted their daily movement.
The foremost cause of Pakistan’s dysfunctional polity, domination of the army and prominence given to the religious right is the creation of this country based on religion. The genie of religion once unleashed can’t be put back in the bottle easily. Rather it attracts millions of people who have become politically and economically disempowered over the years and are confused as to how and who will address their issues. The crises that Pakistan faces are systemic and are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. The country can make a beginning by striking peace with neighbours, particularly India, to cut down military spending and promote trade in the region. For that the army must step aside giving political leadership space to formulate policies and strengthen democratic institutions.
The two main threats to internal security, TTP and Baloch separatism, can be easily dealt with by holding talks with the people there and addressing their grievances. The people in erstwhile tribal areas have shown their resolve against the TTP by holding protests, but at the same time are against the army operation that makes them homeless. Besides, it is time to promote scientific temper rather than mainstreaming religious narrative.
(The writer is a former Intelligence Bureau officer who served in Pakistan. The views are personal)
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