The IPCC made clear that the benefits to society and the world economy of capping global warming under 2 degrees Celsius outweigh economic costs.
This is true even without accounting for all the rewards of avoiding climate damages, which range from the health impacts of air pollution to reduced crop yields.
Week-long negotiations in Interlaken, Switzerland – which went two full days into overtime – were bogged down by fights over language about fossil fuels, by far the main driver of warming.
The report comes as the world has scrambled to shore up energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with countries in Europe and Asia turning to heavily polluting coal.
Greenhouse gas emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure will be enough to push the world beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, without the use of emerging technology to capture and store the carbon pollution, the IPCC said.
The level of greenhouse gas emission reductions this decade will “largely determine” whether humanity can limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times, or the safer 1.5 degrees Celsius, the UN expert report said.
But estimates of future carbon dioxide pollution from existing oil, gas and coal infrastructure – if no new technology is added to capture the emissions – “already exceed the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.
Among the starkest warnings is on the looming threat of deadly heat.
Even if warming is capped at 1.8 degrees Celsius – an optimistic scenario, according to some scientists – half of humanity could, by 2100, be exposed to periods of life-threatening climate conditions arising from the coupled impacts of extreme heat and humidity, according to research.
In the synthesis report, these findings are reflected in a world map of projected deadly impacts of humid heat across the tropics, especially in Southeast Asia, parts of Brazil and West Africa.
There are similarly dire projections for health, the global food system and economic productivity.
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