Ukrainian Counter Offensives Won’t Persuade Putin to Negotiate, US-Based Think Tank Claims

The US-backed Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not negotiate an end to the conflict even if Ukraine launches a series of successful counteroffensive operations in areas under Russian control.

The claim comes shortly after Russian deputy national security advisor and former president Dmitry Medvedev said Russian forces are aware of the latest developments regarding Ukrainian counteroffensive for Bakhmut and did not rule out the possibility of using ‘any weapon’ if Ukrainian forces make a play for Crimea.

Ukraine and Russia have not shown an inclination to sit for peace talks and both sides have doubled down their efforts to emerge victorious as the war enters its 398th day.

Ukrainian forces have claimed that Russian forces are focusing on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinsk and they have repelled more than 60 enemy attacks, news outlet the Guardian said citing the General staff of the armed forces of Ukraine.

They also said the Ukrainian air force made three strikes on Russian troops. Neither the Guardian nor News18 could independently verify these claims.

“The continuing of Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as well as along the Luhansk and western Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war whose outcome is determined in large part by military realities on the ground,” the ISW said in its report.

“Multiple successful Ukrainian counter-offensives are almost certainly necessary but not sufficient either to persuade Putin to negotiate on acceptable terms or to create military conditions on the ground favourable enough to Ukraine and the West that continued or renewed Russian attacks pose acceptable threats to Ukraine or NATO,” the report further added.

The ISW report also comes around the same time that Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. NATO and the US have said these plans are “dangerous and irresponsible” and said these moves question Russia’s nuclear non-proliferation commitments.

Putin said his plans are similar to what the US has been doing, accusing it of stationing its weapons in Europe and claimed that Russia will not violate its nuclear non-proliferation promises.

“Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible. NATO is vigilant and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own,” NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.

If Putin presses ahead with his plans to install nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus, it will be the first time since the 1990s that Russia has done so.

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