Britain has recorded 82,886 Covid cases as Sajid Javid has refused to rule out another lockdown before Christmas and SAGE advisers told government officials that mixing of households should be banned ‘very soon’.
The number of cases has risen by 32,473, or 64.4 per cent, in seven days. But is lower than yesterday’s figure of 90,418.
Some 45 deaths were recorded today, a decrease of 7 from last week’s 52 and a percentage decrease of 13.5.
And cases of the Omicron variant have risen by 50 per cent in just 24 hours to 37,101 as the UK Health Security Agency confirmed a further 12,133 cases today.
It comes as Health Secretary Sajid Javid this morning refused to rule out the possibility of another lockdown before Christmas.
Mr Javid admitted ‘everything is under review’ after SAGE delivered a grim assessment that the number of infections could reach two million by the end of the month without tougher restrictions – floating a ‘circuit breaker’ ban on households mixing and closure of non-essential shops.
Medical and science chiefs Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance briefed the Cabinet yesterday that more measures are required to stop hospital admissions soaring above 3,000 per day in England. Modelling suggests the peak could be as high as 10,000 and the daily death toll might reach 6,000.
There is deep resistance among ministers about the prospect of plunging millions of people back into lockdown wrecking Christmas again while evidence remains unclear.
Questions have also been raised about whether Mr Johnson even has the political capital to push through restrictions, after a massive revolt against Plan B last week and the bombshell resignation of his Brexit minister Lord Frost overnight, highlighting the danger of ‘coercive’ policies.
However, Mr Javid appeared to hint at a looming shift this morning, saying the SAGE analysis is ‘sobering’ and the government is ready to ‘do what is necessary’.
Pushed on whether a circuit breaker could be ruled out before Christmas, Mr Javid told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: ‘There are no guarantees in this pandemic, I don’t think.
‘At this point we just have to keep everything under review.’
Of the advice from scientists, he said: ‘It’s a very sobering analysis. We take it very seriously.
‘We do have to challenge data and underlying assumptions, I think that is appropriate, and take into account a broader set of facts.’
The gloomy news of another potential Christmas of chaos came as:
- Sajid Javid refused to rule out the possibility of another lockdown before Christmas;
- Sadiq Khan declared a ‘major incident’ in London amid fears the capital could run out of police officers, firefighters and NHS workers to cover shifts because rapid rise of Covid cases;
- The number of people in hospital with the Omicron variant rose by 20 to 85 and cases increased by 69% in a day with another 10,059 infections recorded;
- ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson said most people infected with Omicron in Britain would not get seriously ill because they will be protected by their immunity from vaccines or prior infection.
In interviews this morning, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government has to use the ‘data that we have got’ and infections were rising quickly
Government advisors are understood to be urging ministers to take action ‘immediately’ to stop a significant wave of hospitalisations and warn that it willl be at least a week before the effect of any action taken now is seen.
The aim of a ‘circuit breaker’ ban on household mixing would be to stop hospitalisations overwhelming the NHS until booster jabs can be given to all adults, which the government hopes to achieve in January.
Some critics of the SAGE message point to data from South Africa which shows that far fewer people are hospitalised by Omicron leading to speculation that it could cause milder symptoms.
They also say that the Omicron wave in the ‘ground-zero’ Gauteng region where the variant was first detected has peaked much more rapidly than previous waves. After rising rapidly for three weeks cases in Gauteng are now falling.
SAGE advisers counter that South Africa’s high levels of immunity from infection and young population could be responsible for the lower hospitalisation numbers.
Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews and a member of Sage, said it was clear that Plan B measures alone would not be enough to stop the spiralling numbers of Omicron cases in the Uk and that the Government needs to ‘act now’.
He added: ‘Now, you could have it after Christmas, the problem is after Christmas it’s probably too late, it’s probably by then we will have had a huge surge of infections with all the impact upon society.’
The surging statistics came as Professor Neil Ferguson — whose projections have spooked No10 into lockdowns before — called for curbs to be tightened by New Year on the back of his latest modelling of the mutant strain.
He told BBC 4’s Today Programme hospitalisations could be overwhelmed by Christmas as Omicron cases rise in the next week with a ‘very large epidemic underway’. He added: ‘The level of protection against severe disease is not perfect and the very large case numbers may still translate into very large numbers of hospitalisations.’
During the Sage meeting on Thursday, the experts backed a ban on indoor social contact and hospitality. In what could be a blow to Britons planning New Year parties, they want fresh measures to come in before January 1.
Leaked minutes from Sage, seen by the BBC, said scientists had told ministers that tougher measures need to be brought in ‘very soon’.
‘The timing of such measures is crucial,’ said the minutes. ‘Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings.’
An emergency Cobra meeting this weekend will discuss if a joint response to the threat of the Omicron variant is needed across the UK. The meeting will raise fears that more curbs could be imposed before Christmas – despite the opposition of Tory MPs and Downing Street’s apparent determination to get through without them.
It comes as the number of confirmed Omicron cases in England reached 37,101, up 12,133 on the previous day’s total, figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on Saturday showed.
Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 85, from 65.
On Friday, Britain recorded its highest number of daily infections since the pandemic began, with a total of 93,045 people testing positive for Covid in the past 24 hours, up 60 per cent in a week.
Industry experts had feared the Government’s increasingly alarmist messaging surrounding the Omicron mutant strain was affecting customer confidence over what should be a peak period for pubs, bars and restaurants.
Festive takings are expected to fall by up to 40 per cent in December – crippling venues that survived by a thread during previous lockdowns and expect to receive no financial support this time around.
Prof Reicher, who was speaking to Times Radio in a personal capacity, said the time to act was now to prevent the new variant overwhelming the NHS.
It comes amid reports officials have been drawing up draft plans for a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas.
The Financial Times reported that Boris Johnson was presented with a number of options on Friday under a so-called Plan C, ranging from ‘mild guidance to nudge people, right through to lockdown’.
The newspaper quoted allies of the Prime Minister who claimed Mr Johnson still wanted to go down the guidance route, but that he also had to be realistic about the threat of Omicron.
The BBC reported the advisers had recommended moving to restrictions seen in step one and two of the easing of lockdown restrictions in the spring. This included a ban on indoor mixing and indoor hospitality.
They reportedly warned against delaying further interventions until 2022.
Is it REALLY safe to cut the 10-day quarantine?
How long are people infectious for?
Britain’s Covid’s self-isolation sentence could be halved to just five days, some academics have argued.
Data suggests roughly 98 per cent of virus transmission occurs either before people become ill, or within five days of symptoms starting.
Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert from the University of St Andrews, said earlier this year: ‘Given most transmission happens very early on, the isolation period could be much shorter for the cases.
‘Viral load peaks pretty quickly, so people are highly infectious within the first few days.’
How long can Covid patients test positive for?
Lateral flow tests, which offer results in as little as 15 minutes, work best for sniffing out the people who are most infectious.
They look for viral proteins called antigens in samples taken from the nose and throat.
But the kits are less sensitive than gold-standard PCRs, which sees swabs sent off to laboratories to be analysed for viral genetic material.
It means they are less likely to spot someone when they are infected, but also less likely to give a positive result when someone has gone past their peak infectiousness and have a lower viral load.
PCRs, on the other hand, are extremely sensitive and can pick up the presence of viral fragments long after the illness has cleared.
For this reason, a positive PCR result does not always mean someone is still contagious.
The Times reported that draft regulations were being prepared which could ban meeting others indoors except for work purposes and that pubs and restaurants would be limited to outdoor service only, for two weeks after Christmas.
On Saturday, Prof Reicher told Times Radio that ‘all the science suggests that (Plan B is) not going to be enough’.
He said: ‘The only way really, or at least the most effective way, we can have an immediate effect is to decrease the number of contacts we have.
‘In many ways, the most effective way of diminishing contact is to have a circuit-breaker.
‘When people say “look, we don’t want to close down”, of course, we don’t want to close down. But the problem is at the moment, things are closing down anyway, because of the spread of infection.
‘So I think we need to act now.’
Lord Victor Adebowale, chairman of the NHS Confederation, voiced support for a circuit-breaker, warning that a cautionary approach should be taken.
He told Times Radio: ‘I would support the circuit-breaker. My members would support the circuit-breaker.
‘We’ve been calling for Plan B for some time now and we’re glad that it was voted through. I think the Government has to be prepared to recall Parliament if further interventions are needed.’
He added: ‘The fact of the matter is we should be taking the precautionary principle. We should be protecting our NHS and our public services. We have no economy without health.’
A Government spokesperson said: ‘The Government will continue to look closely at all the emerging data and we’ll keep our measures under review as we learn more about this variant.’
Professor Ferguson today told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme Omicron did not yet appear to be more severe than the previous Delta and Alpha variants.
He said: ‘The severity aspect is the least well defined because we’ve observed relatively few hospitalisations. Case numbers are low. We don’t see a particularly strong signal of any change in severity compared with Delta.
‘That’s not to say it’s going to look like the Alpha wave we had a year ago because we do expect all those people with immunity and vaccination will have milder disease.
‘But intrinsically Omicron doesn’t look to be much different to Delta. There is a lot of uncertainty so we’ll know a lot more about that in a week’s time because numbers of cases and hospitalisations are building quickly.’
Having two vaccinations or Covid previously gives Britons ‘very little’ protection from the virus – but they will still have 85-90 percent protection from serious illness, he added.
‘From a public health perspective it means we expect immunity people have built up over the last 12 months to be better preserved against severe disease than against infection. If you’ve been infected before or only had two doses of the vaccine you have very little protection against being infected with Omicron.
‘But the protection against severe disease should hold up well. Perhaps 85-90 percent protection. The challenge we face with a very large epidemic on the way is even that level of protection against severe disease is not perfect and the very large case numbers may still translate into very large numbers of hospitalisations.’
He said the country is currently at risk of overwhelming the NHS. ‘With increasing amounts of data coming in. It is a real concern we will be heading into something that has the risk of affecting the behaviour of the health service. People are changing their behaviour and that will have an impact, whether it is enough is hard to say.’
- A previous version of this article stated that 111 deaths were reported on 12th December. We are happy to clarify that this figure relates to registered deaths, not reported. We have amended the article to make clear that the number of deaths originally reported on this date was 52, indicating a weekly percentage decrease in the comparative figures of 13.5%. We apologise for any confusion caused.
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