UFC 291 preview: BMF belt on the line for anticipated Poirier-Gaethje rematch

By Anthony On Jul 29, 2023

The UFC has been chugging along this summer with Saturday’s UFC 291 in Salt Lake City marking the ninth consecutive weekend the organization is holding an event.

While most pay-per-view cards are headlined by a championship matchup, UFC 291 is just the second card in UFC history at which the “BMF Belt” will be awarded when Dustin Poirier faces Justin Gaethje.

BMF stands for “baddest (expletive)” and the belt was introduced on a whim as a marketing gimmick ahead of a 2019 fight between former fan favourites Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal. Diaz claimed he was the “baddest (expletive) in the game” when calling out Masvidal, so a custom belt was created that was wrapped around Masvidal’s waist after his hand was raised at UFC 244 when he handed Diaz a loss due to a doctor’s stoppage. Masvidal recently retired from mixed martial arts, so the UFC is dusting off the vacant BMF belt and will hand it to one of Poirier or Gaethje.

The UFC 291 main event is a rematch of a 2018 bout Poirier won by technical knockout in the fourth round after he landed 179 total strikes compared to Gaethje’s 116 that night. Poirier and Gaethje have each gone 4-2 overall since that Fight of the Night-winning bout, both won an interim title and both were submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

Gaethje and Poirier are performance bonus machines — Gaethje has 11 in his 11 UFC bouts while Poirier has 13 in his 27 UFC contests — and the winner will remain in the lightweight title picture in addition to picking up a new piece of hardware.

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Poirier closed at roughly -125 ahead of the first meeting and is the betting favourite in this lightweight rematch scheduled for five rounds. Gaethje is in a familiar spot as the underdog, closing as the underdog in seven of his 11 UFC bouts since debuting in 2017.

Michael Chandler, a former opponent of both Poirier and Gaethje, said when breaking down the UFC 291 main event on his YouTube channel that he thinks Poirier punches harder and should have a wrestling advantage, although he expects Gaethje to be quicker and win a five-round decision.

Both are finishers with a willingness to go out on their respective shields, so even though this main event is scheduled for five rounds the total rounds prop for the rematch is set at 2.5. The pair went into a fourth round when they met in Arizona more than five years ago and this rematch takes place at altitude in Utah. Could that impact either fighter in terms of pacing or conditioning if we get into the later rounds?

Implied outcome: Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ +120
Best value bet: Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ +210

Although no belt is at stake, title implications are high for this co-main event with Jamahal Hill recently announcing he is relinquishing the UFC’s light-heavyweight title after sustaining a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Former titleholder Jan Blachowicz is welcoming former middleweight champ Alex Pereira up to the 205-pound division. Blachowicz, who already holds wins over Israel Adesanya and Luke Rockhold, is looking to make Pereira the third 185-pound champion he has defeated at 205 pounds.

How will not depleting himself to make the middleweight limit impact Pereira in the cage, and how long will Blachowicz attempt to strike with the former world champion kickboxer? The odds indicate Pereira has one clear path to victory, while Blachowicz has several.

Implied outcome: Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ +110
Best value bet: Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ +295

MAIN CARD
— Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
— Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
— Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira
— Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
— Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

PRELIMINARY CARD
— Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles
— Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
— Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro
— Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers
— C.J. Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador
— Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic
— Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira

(Listed odds above via Sports Interaction as of Friday afternoon and subject to change)

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