1. Carlos Correa. 10 years, $320M.
Tim Dierkes: Tigers / Steve Adams: Phillies / Anthony Franco: Tigers
In this winter’s star-studded class of free agent shortstops, we consider Correa the best. The Astros drafted Correa first overall out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy back in 2012, and he won the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year Award despite debuting in June. The 2016 season was a continuation of that success, and Correa seemed unstoppable.
However, in the three seasons that followed, Correa averaged only 98 games played per year due to a torn ligament in his thumb, multiple back injuries and a cracked rib. He was able to avoid the IL during the shortened 2020 season yet posted just a 96 wRC+ at the plate. At that point, Correa had played more than 110 games in a season only once, in 2016.
With plenty to prove in 2021, Correa delivered. He played in 148 games, posting a 134 wRC+ at the plate. Remarkably, Correa and Corey Seager have each played exactly 281 games with 1,182 plate appearances since 2019. Correa’s 129 wRC+ ranks fifth among shortstops during that period, not far behind Seager, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Fernando Tatis Jr. remains in a class by himself.)
Correa’s shortstop defense sets him apart from his offensive peers. Since 2018, his outs above average mark is on par with Andrelton Simmons, tied for third in the game among shortstops. Francisco Lindor has better defensive numbers but has never hit the way Correa does. It stands to reason that Lindor’s 10-year, $341M extension with the Mets signed in April 2021 will be a benchmark for Correa. Keep in mind that while Lindor’s and Correa’s contracts both begin with the 2022 season, Correa is more than 10 months younger. Correa should be able to remain at shortstop for the majority of his contract, which is not necessarily true of others on the market.
Correa’s postseason performance further bolsters his resume. He’s had all kinds of walk-off moments in his 79 career postseason games, with a batting line of .272/.344/.505 and 18 home runs in 334 plate appearances.
Correa has mostly quieted questions about his ability to stay healthy, playing in more than 97% of regular-season games since 2020. That leaves one primary concern about our top free agent: his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Correa benefited from the team’s trash can scheme in at least 2017 and ’18 and possibly in 2019. While he has spoken about feeling remorse, there has also been defiance in his comments after the scandal broke. Perhaps that’s why the sign-stealing scandal might not roll off Correa’s back in quite the same way it seems to have with George Springer, who signed the largest contract of the previous offseason.
The boos may follow Correa on the road for his entire career. He showed this year that doesn’t faze him, but with several good alternatives on the market, certain big-market teams — namely the Dodgers and Yankees — might not be able to stomach a long-term marriage with Correa. The Dodgers have a potential in-house replacement for Seager anyway in Turner. The Yankees figure to at least be involved in Correa’s market given their stated desire to improve at shortstop. The Tigers, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners and Cardinals are other potential suitors. A reunion with the Astros is still possible as well, though the club never got past $125M in its spring training extension offers.
2. Corey Seager. 10 years, $305M.
TD: Yankees / SA: Yankees / AF: Yankees
Seager, 28 in April, is one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball. Since 2020, only Tatis Jr. has outhit him. He’s difficult to strike out, posted a career-best walk rate this year and since 2020 ranks third among all shortstops (min. 200 PAs) with a .239 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Though the left-handed-hitting Seager has never topped 26 home runs in a season, he has 31 bombs in 147 games since ’20. His key Statcast markers were all in the 80th percentile or better.
Seager didn’t set the world on fire in his 53 postseason plate appearances this year for the Dodgers, but he boasts trophies for NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020 and has ample October experience. The former No. 18 overall draft pick (2012) won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished third in the MVP voting back in 2016. A two-time All-Star, Seager also received MVP votes in the 2017 and ’20 seasons. Seager’s defense generally falls into acceptable range, but there’s an expectation he’ll move off shortstop at some point in the middle of his contract. At 6-4, Seager, Correa and Cal Ripken Jr. are the tallest regular shortstops in major league history.
Major injuries have befallen Seager three times in his MLB career. He played in only 26 regular-season games in 2018 due to Tommy John and hip surgeries. This year in May, Seager was struck by a Ross Detwiler pitch that fractured his right hand, limiting him to 95 regular-season games. Seager raked upon his return with a 169 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances. He did, however, find himself with a new double play partner in Turner. Turner, under team control through 2022, was in his fifth year starring as the Nationals’ shortstop and moved to second base for the Dodgers only in deference to Seager.
After the easy call to make Seager a qualifying offer, it stands to reason that the Dodgers will make at least some attempt to retain their longtime shortstop, but with Turner in tow, they hardly need to act out of desperation, opening the door for teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, Astros, Angels, Rangers and Cardinals to make a play.
3. Freddie Freeman. Six years, $180M.
TD: Braves / SA: Braves / AF: Red Sox
Freeman, 32, has been one of the best hitters in baseball dating all the way back to 2013. His lowest single-season wRC+ mark during those nine seasons is 132, and he surged up to 186 in the shortened 2020 season to win the NL MVP. Freeman has gotten MVP votes in five additional seasons and is a five-time All-Star. Having signed an extension back in 2014, Freeman has been a Braves fixture for more than 11 seasons.
With such a beloved and consistently excellent player, it’s difficult to picture Freeman in another uniform. However, despite the Braves’ attempts to lock him up, Freeman has reached the open market. The obvious comparable is Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130M extension from spring 2019, but it’s unknown where each side stands relative to that marker. It’s also worth noting that even with the Braves’ championship, signing Freeman at $30M+ per year will leave Liberty Media with limited financial flexibility to improve the team unless Atlanta raises payroll to new heights or sheds existing commitments. If the Braves somehow allow Freeman to leave, the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets and Dodgers could be in play, but it’s tough to let a legacy player like this walk away on the heels of a World Series win.
4. Kris Bryant. Six years, $160M.
TD: Mariners / SA: Mariners / AF: Mets
The Cubs selected Bryant second overall in the 2013 draft out of the University of San Diego. The club held off on starting the clock for his 2015 Rookie of the Year season just enough to secure control of his 2021 season, which led to a grievance that Bryant ultimately lost. Bryant seemingly peaked early, ranking third among all position players in wins above replacement from 2015-17, a period that included his 2016 MVP Award and the Cubs’ World Series championship. Two of Bryant’s seasons have been marred by injury: a shoulder injury that limited him to 102 games in 2018 and an assortment of minor injuries that resulted in him playing 34 of 60 games in 2020.
That brief ’20 season was the only one in which Bryant posted a subpar batting line. While he bounced back this year with a 123 wRC+, that still fell short of anything he did from 2015-19. He was never a standout defensive third baseman, which prompted the rebranding of Bryant into a jack-of-all-trades defender. He logged 55 games at third base, 48 in left field, 39 in right field, 19 in center field and 12 at first base this year for the Cubs and Giants. As Bryant approaches his 30th birthday, he seems to have settled in as a quality hitter with defensive versatility, rather than the Hall of Fame-track superstar he was when he burst onto the scene.
Bryant once seemed a lock for well over $200M, but we don’t see that happening now that he’s actually reached free agency. He is aided by being ineligible for a qualifying offer. The Giants will surely keep an eye on his market, but president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has plainly stated that the rotation is his top priority. After the season, Zaidi also characterized the acquisition of Bryant like a move that was unique to the 2021 season:
“For us, the move at the deadline was really about pushing chips in with this team, which we thought was a really special team and had a chance to do some special things and did. But we recognize that he’s a superstar talent and it’s going to be a really competitive market for his services. I’m sure we’ll have conversations there, but he’s going to have a long line of suitors, so we’ll just have to see how that develops.”
The Giants can’t be firmly ruled out, but the Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Blue Jays, Phillies and Padres could also be suitors.
5. Kevin Gausman. Six years, $138M.
TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Giants
Gausman began his career with a solid run for the Orioles after being selected fourth overall in 2012 out of Louisiana State. He was dealt to Atlanta at the 2018 trade deadline as the O’s kicked off their still-ongoing rebuild. After struggling through 16 starts in 2019, the Braves let Gausman go to the Reds as a waiver claim. Cincinnati used him as a reliever to finish the season. It seems that neither the Braves nor the Reds felt that Gausman’s abilities justified an arbitration salary north of $10M, and the Reds non-tendered him.
That’s where the Giants jumped in with a $9M free agent contract. Under the Giants’ tutelage, Gausman was superb in the abbreviated 2020 season, enough so that the club felt justified in making an $18.9M qualifying offer. Rather than hit the free agent market with that burden, Gausman accepted the offer. A two- or three-year deal might have been on the table had he rejected and hit the market, but the decision to bet on himself by accepting that QO now looks prescient.
Gausman went out in 2021 and proved his 2020 breakout was no fluke, making his first All-Star team. The righty ramped up the use of his splitter this year, to the point where he threw that or his fastball nearly 90% of the time. Overall for the Giants, Gausman has a 3.00 ERA, 30.0 K% and 6.5 BB% in 251 2/3 innings. Gausman’s bet on himself paid off, and he hits the market ineligible for a qualifying offer. If Gausman’s price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, he could land with the Tigers, Mariners, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets or Cardinals.
6. Marcus Semien. Six years, $138M.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels
Semien settled in as Oakland’s dependable starting shortstop as of 2015, but his offense skyrocketed in 2019 en route to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting. An unimpressive regular season in 2020 led to Semien betting on himself in free agency, signing a one-year, $18M deal with the Blue Jays and moving to second base. With the Jays, Semien established that 2020 was the fluke, as his monster 45-homer 2021 campaign will net him MVP votes once again. Semien’s Statcast batting metrics don’t stand out this year, but you can’t argue with the results.
Defensively, Semien may profile better at second base than shortstop, but he’s played significantly more short in his career and should at least be good for a few years there. Semien does carry the weight of a qualifying offer, but interest should be robust for clubs that miss out on Correa and Seager or prefer not to shop in the $300M aisle. His market also may differ from Correa and Seager in that he’s more likely to be signed as a second baseman. As a 31-year-old, Semien may be limited to a six-year pact, itself hard to achieve at this age. The Blue Jays will surely attempt to re-sign him, but otherwise the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cardinals and Dodgers are other potential matches.
7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130M.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays
Drafted by the Nationals out of high school in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in the December 2013 Doug Fister deal. A year later, Ray was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees. Ray found success in his first five seasons for the D-backs as a high-strikeout, high-walk, homer-prone southpaw. In 2017, he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting, but in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ray’s already-high walk rate jumped to an untenable 20.1% through seven starts. With free agency looming, he was shipped to Toronto mostly as a salary dump.
Ray’s brief effort for the 2020 Jays didn’t stand out, and he still walked batters at a higher rate than he had from 2015-19 in Arizona. Toronto saw something it liked nonetheless, making an early free agent strike by re-upping him to a one-year, $8M deal in November last year.
Ray began the 2021 season on the IL for a bruised elbow suffered falling down some stairs. After a six-walk outing on April 18, the notion of Ray contending for the AL Cy Young Award would have been laughable — but that’s exactly what he did. The 30-year-old lefty led all of baseball with 248 strikeouts, also solving his longstanding walk issue with a career-best 6.9 BB%. Ray’s 2.84 ERA was the best in the American League. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic put it, “How Ray went from good to elite took a change in his mechanics, a change in his approach and a change in his physique.” Still, it wasn’t a radical overhaul in terms of pitch selection for Ray, who has remained a fastball-slider pitcher.
Ray showed strong control over a five-month period this year. For a potential new team, how much does that erase his 13 BB% from the three prior years? It’s also worth considering that Ray allowed a home run to 4.3% of batters faced this year, 19th-worst in MLB among those with at least 100 innings pitched. While Ray is about nine months younger than fellow top free agent Gausman, the lefty bears the burden of a qualifying offer. Their markets figure to be similar.
8. Trevor Story. Six years, $126M.
TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Astros
Story, 29 this month, ranked second among MLB shortstops with 13.6 WAR from 2018-20. At the plate, he posted a 124 wRC+ during that time and was a regular 30-homer threat. Story was one of the game’s best defensive shortstops by Outs Above Average in 2019, though his OAA marks have been pedestrian since. Amid trade rumors and right elbow inflammation, the longtime Rockie slipped to a 100 wRC+ at the plate, but after the trade deadline passed, Story rallied for a 127 wRC+ that was more in line with his career work.
The Rockies chose not to trade Story, instead tagging him with a qualifying offer. Like most Rockies regulars, Story has been a much better hitter at Coors Field. We’ve seen plenty of hitters leave that comfortable hitting environment and continue to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler and Chris Iannetta among them. Others, like Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki, could not sustain their success, and still others, like Garrett Atkins and Carlos Gonzalez, began their declines while still in a Rockies uniform.
It’d be overly simplistic to suggest Story’s offensive success is a product of Coors. Even with his worst season at the plate since 2017, Story still posted 3.5 WAR. By some metrics, he has remained an above-average defender. Though he may not have the youth or ceiling of Correa or Seager or the platform year of Semien, Story should be highly coveted in free agency. The Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies and Cardinals may be involved.
9. Max Scherzer. Three years, $120M.
TD: Dodgers / SA: Dodgers / AF: Dodgers
Scherzer, 37, has already put together a Hall of Fame career in his 14 years in MLB, mainly with the Tigers and Nationals. He won a Cy Young in 2013, ’16 and ’17 and finished top-five in four other seasons. In 2021, Scherzer showed no signs of slowing down, and he’s in the running for the top pitching award once again. Not long after landing his fourth All-Star game start, Scherzer was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers along with Turner in a blockbuster deal.
Scherzer’s dominance only deepened with the Dodgers, and overall he finished with a 2.46 ERA, a 34.1 K% that ranked second in the NL and a 5.2 BB% that ranked fifth. Scherzer’s postseason experience is extensive, but after getting his first career save against the Giants in NLDS Game 5, he started Game 2 of the NLCS and began feeling the effects. Arm fatigue kept him from Game 6, and that’s as far as the Dodgers went.
Even at 37, Scherzer remains a Game 1 ace, and bidding for his services among playoff hopefuls will be fierce. He’s free of a qualifying offer, too. Three-year deals are exceedingly rare at Scherzer’s age, yet we still think he can get there. We also believe that given the relatively short term, Scherzer can surpass MLB’s record average annual value of $36M and possibly even become the game’s first $40M AAV player. The Dodgers should have the inside track, but otherwise the Giants, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Padres and Cardinals could join the bidding.
10. Nick Castellanos. Five years, $115M.
TD: Rangers / SA: Padres / AF: Padres
Castellanos, 30 in March, posted a 140 wRC+ on the season that ranked third among free agents, behind Kyle Schwarber and the now-retired Buster Posey. His 34 home runs ranked third behind Semien and Kyle Seager. Aside from the lost 2020 season, Castellanos has posted at least a 122 wRC+ in every year since 2018. He also shows well in Statcast metrics. Castellanos is one of the best hitters available in free agency this year.
Castellanos made the easy choice to opt out of the remaining two years and $34M owed to him by the Reds, which have since tagged him with a qualifying offer. Aside from the QO, the knock on Castellanos is his defense, which has been consistently below-average. By Outs Above Average, he was the second-worst right fielder in the game this year. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimare Zone Rating weren’t quite so bearish but still agreed he was a below-average outfielder once again. Still, there’s a good chance the DH comes to the NL in 2022, and Castellanos could draw interest from the Rangers, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Reds and Mets.
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