The White House wants to tackle migration again. But the key players were nowhere to be found at the Summit of Americas

“It is a shame that none of the governments are there to speak with her, especially Honduras, but for the most part the current governments of the Northern Triangle are more obstacles than partners,” said Adam Isaacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA), and an expert on migration to the southern border.

Democratic backsliding

Bukele and Giammattei, in particular, have opened the door to anti-democratic behavior in their respective countries in recent years — the former famously led armed soldiers into congress to pass a budget law in 2020 — and relations with the US have declined since Biden took power as the White House has repeatedly criticized this sort of conduct.

“Bukele and Giammattei are actively dismantling democracy and fostering corruption, they are creating the conditions that lead to more migration […] which explains why the Biden administration made the choice to emphasize the private sector,” Isaacson told CNN.

Castro’s predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was extradited to the US in April on drug trafficking charges. While her administration has been more in step with the White House, it may have nevertheless decided to skip the Los Angeles summit in order to avoid upsetting Honduras’ neighbours, as well as in a show of solidarity with the excluded countries Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

And people from those excluded countries are turning up in record numbers at the US southern border.

Nearly 80,000 Cubans reached the US border from Mexico from October through March, according to US Customs and Border Protection data, with record numbers of Venezuelans and Nicaraguans arriving at the US border in 2021 and early 2022.

Opposing objectives

Where Washington and the Northern Triangle governments’ perspectives differ the most is on the migration issue.

But migration is not seen as a problem but as an opportunity in the Northern Triangle. The annual movement of tens of thousands of people eases the social pressures facing these governments, and remittances from nationals abroad have become a considerable chunk of these countries’ economies.

That means the flow of remittances from migrants abroad is seven times higher than the investments the White House touted this week.

“These countries have understood the centrality of the migration’s issue in US politics, which give them great leverage, as they don’t see too many threats in distancing themselves from Washington,” said Tiziano Breda, a Central American expert at the International Crisis Group in Guatemala.

A growing number of Salvadorans leaving the country are calling foul on Bukele’s grand vision to ‘Make El Salvador Great Again,’ but it’s a fact that these economies receive much more investments from fellow nationals working in the United States than from any big US corporation opening a factory south of the border or foreign aid from Washington.

As leaders hob-nobbed in Los Angeles this week, at least 3,000 migrants — mostly from Venezuela, which has also been excluded from the summit — crossed the Guatemala-Mexico border heading north toward the US.

The US and other countries in attendance are expected to issue a joint declaration on Friday that will outline a cooperative approach to migration, which will include strengthened protection for migrants, support for countries hosting large refugee populations and tackle human smuggling networks.

But with key leaders not in attendance, including Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, it remains to be seen if these commitments will have any potency.