HONG KONG: Amid intensifying military deployments across East Asia, high-level defence dialogue between China and the United States remains frozen.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not secure any progress on the issue during his visit to Beijing last week.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin attempted talks with China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu during a defence conference in Singapore this month but did not get beyond a handshake.
WHAT IS THE SITUATION NOW?
General Li, appointed in March, remains sanctioned by the US over his role in a 2017 weapons purchase from Russia’s largest arms exporter, Rosoboronexport. Chinese officials have repeatedly said they want those sanctions, imposed in 2018, dropped to facilitate discussions.
Li and other senior officials also say they want signs from the US of “mutual respect” – easing its patrolling and surveillance off China’s coasts and an end to arms sales for Taiwan. Neither is about to happen.
The tension predates Li’s appointment, with Beijing’s scrapping three avenues of military communication in August 2022 in protest of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
This scuppered planned talks between theatre-level commands, regular defence policy coordination and military maritime consultations, which included operational safety issues.
A senior US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that since 2021 China had declined or not responded to more than a dozen requests to talk with the Pentagon and nearly 10 working-level engagement requests.
Regional countries are watching closely, with some leery of being drawn into a wider conflict or forced to choose between the superpowers.
Serving and retired military officers stress the importance of smooth communications beyond political leaders, given the dangers of operational miscalculations.
HOW DEEP IS THE FREEZE?
Significantly, it isn’t total. Diplomats and Chinese analysts say military attaches at embassies in Beijing and Washington are still able to meet officials – an important element of routine communication.
Operationally, routine military ship-to-ship and aircraft-to-aircraft communication still takes place and is, according to three diplomats familiar with the situation, often professional at a basic level. At moments of tension, however, it is more fraught.
Senior Chinese military intelligence officials also participated in a secret meeting of regional spies in Singapore earlier this month – a session that included US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
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