European companies are ramping up security around pipelines and energy prices are climbing again as the suspected sabotage of two pipelines that deliver natural gas from Russia underscored the vulnerability of Europe’s energy infrastructure, and prompted the EU to warn of possible retaliation.
Some European officials and energy experts have said Russia is likely to blame for any sabotage — it directly benefits from higher energy prices and economic anxiety across Europe — although others cautioned against pointing fingers until investigators are able to determine what happened.
Russia has sharply curtailed natural gas shipments to Europe in retaliation for sanctions that the West put in place after its invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, Russian energy giant Gazprom increased the pressure, threatening on Twitter to cease dealing with the Ukrainian gas company that controls one of the only two remaining pipelines that ship Russian gas to Europe.
Coming on top of the apparent sabotage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines, “that means a major escalation and readiness to escalate,” said Agata Loskot-Strachota, senior fellow in energy policy at the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.
Likely a deliberate act, EU says
Seismologists say explosions rattled the Baltic Sea before unusual leaks were discovered Tuesday on two underwater natural gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany.
“All available information indicates those leaks are the result of a deliberate act,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement on behalf of the bloc’s 27 members. “Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response.”
Three leaks were reported on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which were filled with natural gas but were not delivering fuel to Europe ever since Russia stopped the flow to apply economic pressure on the continent.
The extent of the damage, along with the political ramifications, raises serious doubts about the future of the Nord Stream pipelines, which were built so that Russia could deliver gas directly to Germany, without going through Ukraine or Poland. Germany was heavily criticized for the project by the U.S. and many of its European partners, which said that it only increased Europe’s reliance on Russian gas imports.
The head of the Danish Energy Agency, Kristoffer Böttzauw, said Wednesday that it wasn’t clear when it would be safe for investigators to examine the damaged pipes, which he said are made of 12 centimetre-thick steel coated with concrete. The pipelines lie on the seabed between 70 and 90 metres deep.
In Sweden, the domestic security agency SAPO said Wednesday that it was investigating the case and that it couldn’t be ruled out “that a foreign power is behind it.”
‘Someone is trying to intimidate’
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau was more direct, suggesting Tuesday that the leaks could be part of Russia’s campaign to apply pressure on the West for supporting Ukraine.
“The explosions took place very close to Danish territorial waters, but not inside them, because that would have meant NATO territory,” Rau said during a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“This could mean that someone is trying to intimidate the countries of the Baltic Sea. With the exception of Russia, all these countries are NATO members or are aspiring to membership,” he said.
WATCH l Europe stunned by ‘unprecedented’ pipeline leaks:
Johannes Peters, head of the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, says there’s only one Baltic country where ‘the possibility, the capabilities and the motivation’ for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines come together — and that’s Russia.
The UN Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting Friday afternoon at Russia’s request to discuss the suspected pipeline sabotage.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said allegations that Russia could be behind the incidents were “predictable and stupid.” He told reporters in a conference call that the damage has caused Russia huge economic losses.
Even with eyes turning toward Russia, Anders Puck Nielsen, a researcher with the Center for Maritime Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College, said that it would be hard to establish who is responsible, and just as tough to prevent similar incidents.
Seabed lines of all sorts vulnerable, expert says
“We have pipelines, we have communication cables like the internet. We have power lines running on the seabed. All of this is vulnerable and our societies are very dependent on it. And it’s very, very difficult to monitor what’s going on and to prevent a case of sabotage,” he told The Associated Press.
The head of the Danish Energy Agency, Kristoffer Böttzauw, expects gas to keep flowing out of the holes until the end of the week. Only then, he told Danish media, can experts “try to get out and investigate what the cause is, and approach the pipes.”
The gas is not poisonous, experts say, but contains methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas responsible for global warming.
Böttzauw said the leaks could discharge the equivalent of one-third of Denmark’s total annual greenhouse emissions.
A spokesperson for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declined to respond to media reports that the CIA had warned Germany earlier this summer that the pipelines could be attacked. “But let me say that according to our findings, there is no evidence that there is a natural cause for the pressure drop in the pipelines,” spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters.
Energy companies and governments are already acting. Norwegian state oil company, Equinor, said it has decided to raise the level of preparedness in Norway, according to national broadcaster NRK. The alert was raised overnight and applies to all of Equinor’s facilities.
Natural gas prices spike after ruptures
“What happened in the Baltic Sea is very serious,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told a news conference in Oslo.
Before the pipeline leaks discovered Tuesday, natural gas prices in Europe had dropped from their all-time peak in late August because countries have filled storage facilities to 87 per cent of capacity ahead of winter, when demand for the fuel soars to heat homes and generate electricity.
Europe’s natural gas prices have risen roughly 14 per cent since the pipeline ruptures rattled nerves about energy security.
Natural gas prices are about three times higher than just before Russia invaded Ukraine. An energy crisis driven by the war is threatening rationing, business closures and recession in Europe. The continent’s ability to get through winter will be deeply affected by how cold it is and whether they can find supplies to make up what’s been lost from Russia.
Another major source of Russian income — oil — has fallen sharply in price from June peaks of over $120 US per barrel. On Wednesday, Brent crude futures traded at $87.40 per barrel, up more than five per cent since Monday.
Simone Tagliapietra, an energy policy expert at Bruegel, said Russia’s latest threat to disrupt natural gas that flows through Ukraine is not having as much impact as it might have hoped.
“Its announcements are now having lower impact on prices, as both market and governments have internalized and got prepared for a full interruption of Russian gas to Europe,” Tagliapietra said.
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