A detailed analysis of the poll data across demographics and other categories in the major regions of the state suggests that the Congress is likely to win between 110 and 122 seats in the May 10 elections. The Karnataka Assembly has 224 members and a tally of 113 is required to form a simple majority government.
The party is projected to get 40.2 per cent of the vote share, up 2.2 per cent from what it managed in the previous Assembly elections in 2018. The BJP, which currently has a government in the state, is projected to win between 73 and 85 seats. In 2018, the saffron party had won 104 seats.
Interestingly, BJP’s vote share is projected to remain the same at 36 per cent. Compared to the earlier rounds of the C-Voter poll, this is an improvement both in terms of seats and vote share.
The JD(S) is projected to win between 21 and 29 seats. In 2018, it had won 37 seats. The projected vote share for the JD(S) in 16.1 per cent, down almost 2 per cent compared to the 2018 elections.
Barring the Greater Bengaluru region, which sends 32 MLAs to the Karnataka Assembly, the Congress is projected to win more seats than the BJP in all the other regions of the state.Interestingly, the BJP is projected to substantially increase its vote share in the Old Mysuru region, a stronghold of the JD(S), from 17 per cent in 2018 to more than 25 per cent this time. But this seems to be resulting in a triangular fight which is helping the Congress.
Elections are scheduled in a single phase on May 10 and the results will be declared on May 13.
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