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The risk to French power supply from the start of January through the rest of winter has been reduced to ‘medium’ due to higher nuclear and hydropower availability as well as reduced demand from consumers, French grid operator RTE said on Tuesday.
Nuclear power utility EDF has faced an unprecedented number of reactor outages this year due to delayed maintenance and stress corrosion, reducing nuclear output to 30-year lows just as Russia’s war in Ukraine hit Europe’s energy supplies.
French nuclear availability is now forecast to increase slightly to some 45 GW by the end of January before decreasing again in February for the start of the maintenance season, the operator said.
Meanwhile, power demand has fallen by some 9% compared to the pre-pandemic five-year average, RTE said. The French government has in past months urged households and businesses alike to cut their electricity use by 10%.
“The consumption reductions are greater than anticipated in the September analysis,” the grid operator said in its report.
However, there is uncertainty on the level of demand destruction in industry in the new year when companies will get their new prices and contracts, Emeric de Vigan, vice president of power at data and analytics firm Kpler said.
The French front-year baseload power price TRFRBYZ3 has fallen 25.8% since the beginning of December to a closing price of 331 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) on Monday, a contract low since late June.
RTE said future prices are now more in line with fundamentals, which reflects the improvements in availability.
Nuclear power availability topped 40 gigawatts (GW) on Dec. 12, lifting supply to the top of the anticipated availability range, it continued.
Combined with the replenishment of hydropower reservoirs during the autumn, which allowed hydro production levels to hit a near record peak at 16 GW in December, this has lowered the risk for the rest of winter, RTE said.
Imported power from neighboring countries via interconnectors also reached record levels near 15 GW in recent weeks, they added.
The filling level of French gas stocks has dropped to around 85% after beginning the winter near full, which is higher than previous years, RTE said.
There is no concern for the first part of winter due to high gas supply levels across the continent, but vigilance will be needed for the second half of winter and especially winter 2023-24, they added.
Highlighting the risks ahead, EDF on Monday announced the delayed restart of several corrosion-hit reactors, in some cases until as late as June.
(Reuters)
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