NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: The RBI has projected the country’s economy to grow by 7.8% in 2022-23, lower than the government’s estimate of 8% to 8.5% expansion. It also estimated retail inflation during the next fiscal year at 4.5% but cautioned about the hardening of global crude oil prices and their impact on prices.
It retained its inflation projection for 2021-22 at 5.3%, with the fourth quarter at 5.7% on account of unfavourable base effects that are likely to ease subsequently.
The Economic Survey had estimated GDP growth for 2022-23 at 8-8.5% for 2022-23 while several other agencies have forecast growth in the 8-9% range as the recovery gathers momentum due to a host of factors.
“Overall, there is some loss of the momentum of near-term growth while global factors are turning adverse. Looking ahead, domestic growth drivers are gradually improving. Considering all these factors, real GDP growth is projected at 7.8% for 2022-23 with Q1:2022-23 at 17.2%, Q2 at 7.0%, Q3 at 4.3%, and Q4 at 4.5%,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.
He said inflation is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2021-22 within the central bank’s tolerance band and then moderate closer to target in the second half of 2022-23, providing room for monetary policy to remain accommodative.
“Notwithstanding a highly transmissible third wave driven by the Omicron variant, India is charting a different course of recovery from the rest of the world,” Das said.
He said going forward, positive impulses for quickening the pace of recovery emanate from buoyant rabi prospects, robust export demand, accommodative monetary and liquidity conditions, improving credit offtake, and the continued push on capital expenditure and infrastructure in the Budget 2022-23.
Das said GDP growth at 9.2%for 2021-22 takes it modestly above the level of GDP in 2019-20. Private consumption, the mainstay of domestic demand, continues to trail its pre-pandemic level. The persistent increase in international commodity prices, surge in volatility of global financial markets and global supply bottlenecks can exacerbate risks to the outlook, he said. The RBI governor said that the government’s thrust on capital expenditure and exports are expected to enhance productive capacity and strengthen aggregate demand.
It retained its inflation projection for 2021-22 at 5.3%, with the fourth quarter at 5.7% on account of unfavourable base effects that are likely to ease subsequently.
The Economic Survey had estimated GDP growth for 2022-23 at 8-8.5% for 2022-23 while several other agencies have forecast growth in the 8-9% range as the recovery gathers momentum due to a host of factors.
“Overall, there is some loss of the momentum of near-term growth while global factors are turning adverse. Looking ahead, domestic growth drivers are gradually improving. Considering all these factors, real GDP growth is projected at 7.8% for 2022-23 with Q1:2022-23 at 17.2%, Q2 at 7.0%, Q3 at 4.3%, and Q4 at 4.5%,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.
He said inflation is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2021-22 within the central bank’s tolerance band and then moderate closer to target in the second half of 2022-23, providing room for monetary policy to remain accommodative.
“Notwithstanding a highly transmissible third wave driven by the Omicron variant, India is charting a different course of recovery from the rest of the world,” Das said.
He said going forward, positive impulses for quickening the pace of recovery emanate from buoyant rabi prospects, robust export demand, accommodative monetary and liquidity conditions, improving credit offtake, and the continued push on capital expenditure and infrastructure in the Budget 2022-23.
Das said GDP growth at 9.2%for 2021-22 takes it modestly above the level of GDP in 2019-20. Private consumption, the mainstay of domestic demand, continues to trail its pre-pandemic level. The persistent increase in international commodity prices, surge in volatility of global financial markets and global supply bottlenecks can exacerbate risks to the outlook, he said. The RBI governor said that the government’s thrust on capital expenditure and exports are expected to enhance productive capacity and strengthen aggregate demand.
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