Punjab may see 300% rise in Covid-19 cases by November-end

If projections are to be believed, Punjab’s caseload may rise by 300% by the end of this month amid the coronavirus transmission rate flaring up after a two-month lull.

Covid-19 cases in Punjab started to rise post-Diwali — with the state registering a growth of 4.2% on November 8 — and kept on increasing for five consecutive days, touching 10.3% on November 13. Punjab is among six states in India currently witnessing a daily growth rate of more than 5%.

Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand are the other states/UT where the pandemic situation has deteriorated, as per analysis done by Cambridge Judge Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Punjab reported 47 cases on November 14, which is expected to rise to 189 by November 27, as per the report.

After J&K (374), Punjab will record the second highest number of cases among the six states/UTs.

The uptick in cases has resulted in a rise in the rate at which Covid-19 or any other infection spreads, which had remained below the crucial threshold of 1 during the last few months — R-Value.

Punjab’s R-value has now touched 1.5, which at the moment is the third highest in the country, with only Ladakh (1.70) and Rajasthan (1.60) having a higher R-value.

The state health authorities have attributed the surge largely to spurt in activities around Diwali.

Instructions have been issued to all the districts to ensure that containment measures are implemented properly. All districts have been directed to increase testing and ensure strict enforcement of containment and management measures, said nodal officer Dr Rajesh Bhaskar.

As per the average of the last seven days, Punjab conducted 1,048 tests per million population which is about 12% more than the national testing average of 929.

(With inputs from TOI)

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