Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Europe proved rather timely, in an explosive period in Europe; he could hardly have chosen a more potent moment to hold extensive meetings with leaders in the frontline of the new front. The leaders in the thick of a new confrontation building up are, unlikely as it may seem, from Finland and Sweden — Finland particularly. Both these Nordic countries are fast-tracking their moves to join NATO in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Finland is taking the lead. Sweden does not border Russia, but Finland does, for all of 1,300 km. Russia has warned, inevitably, of “serious consequences” if Finland were to join NATO. Given Ukraine, nobody takes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats lightly any more. Everyone is hoping no doubt the future will justify present trends to take Putin’s repeated and only thinly veiled threats of a nuclear option lightly.
In the face of Finland’s move to join NATO, and Putin’s warning, the danger of a Russian land invasion into Finland appears far more immediate at the moment than the nuclear option. That further means that the prospect of a third world war is far less than fanciful. NATO is unlikely to take a spectator position if Russia were to attack Finland.
Sweating it out
Finland has long had an uneasy relationship with Russia. And it has found some rather unusual means to handle it — sauna diplomacy. Russian leaders inclined to hostility have been invited to Helsinki for talks with Finnish leaders conducted partly sitting together in a sauna — an environment for political talks could hardly get more informal than that. The belief presumably has been that if two leaders chat pleasantly together wearing just towels, one will not the next day attack the other. Whether the sauna did it or other things did, Russia has not attacked Finland since 1939, other than a confrontation between the forces of the two nations again through the Second World War.
In the 1939 invasion ordered by the dictator Joseph Stalin, enraged by little Finland’s refusal to surrender some territory as ordered, the Russians suffered heavy losses. A force of 33,000 Finns more than stood up to 26 Russian divisions, depleted of its officers by Stalin’s great purge in which he had just about every senior military commander in the Russian forces shot dead, fearing their alliance with the Germans, and an inclination to oust him. A treaty ended the Russian-Finn war three months later.
Today, Finland feels threatened again, and it clearly does not want to rely on its own meagre forces to keep the Russians away were it to come to that. Nor do they seem to believe that a chat with Putin dressed in just a towel in a sauna could talk him out of his invasive ways. Finland wants NATO to step in, and for any war of its own to become in effect a US war with Russia. Under Article 5 of NATO, an attack on any member country would be considered an attack on every member country.
NATO membership takes typically a year because parliaments of all member countries must endorse a new member. But Finland is in a hurry; it wants NATO protection as soon as it applies, a demand that NATO has offered to meet in substantial part. Finland is expected to launch its membership move as early as next week. NATO leaders have said they will consider offering a degree of protection ahead of the full ratification process.
This then opens the prospect of US forces setting up along a 1,300 km border with Russia in the very near future. The two kept away from one another except for distant face-offs throughout the Cold War. But few will believe that face to face on Russia’s border on land, the two will keep the peace for long.
India’s role
India has good relations with both Russia and the US, and if this amounts to fence-sitting, this fence seems more comfortable presently than a seat on either side of it. India simply cannot afford to lose its strategic relationship with Russia, which has been more supportive of India through its own conflicts than any other country.
India has abstained from UN resolutions condemning Russia. So has Pakistan. India could hardly condemn Russia in the UN with Pakistan taking a supportive role, given the long military ties between Russia and India. India stays bound to Russia for now, as it has for long.
This new face-off developing across Europe fast will need interlocutors. Prime Minister Modi’s visit marks a step forward for India to position itself as a potentially influential interlocutor. PM Modi cannot talk Putin out of the invasion, but India could remain potentially a voice with goodwill on all sides, that can begin to count in an escalating conflict while keeping matters calm in its own neighbourhood.
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