We went 2-for-3 on our goal scorers Wednesday night, so if you bet them straight, you saw profit for the second night in a row. The parlay fell short, but we had the right game circled, Calgary poured them in, just not our guy in Johnny Gaudreau.
Thursday is a fresh day, and in a loaded NHL slate (10 games), there’s some intriguing value to be had for betting on goal scorers once again.
Five games fit the bill when considering potential goal scoring chances, so I’ve brought in my favorites from all five teams.
How to play this?
It’s something I’m considering myself, a parlay of all five legs is currently +16378 on FanDuel. Yes, that payout would be incredible, but it’s a 5-leg parlay, a lottery ticket at the end of the day.
My approach will be to Round Robin bet these on FanDuel, which gives us flexibility to combine parlays of three, so that if we correctly get three goal scorers right, we will win some money. Betting these straight is the safest option, if you agree with the logic that powers these picks.
I’ll also have to sprinkle a bit of money on the entire parlay, just in case. As always, bet responsibly. Let’s get to the spots! I’ve included where their goal odds are the best between the two major books, FanDuel and DraftKings.
Brayden Point (+134 FD)
We’ll start with Tampa Bay, who will face a Devils team allowing the most goals per game on the road in their last ten games (4.6).
A great opponent, and with the Lightning averaging a respectable 3.3 goals per game at home in their past 10 (12th-highest), it’s a good spot to begin our bets.
Brayden Point draws me in, considering he has a goal in four straight home games and has scored in Tampa Bay in 10 of 15 games on the year.
He’s seen steady volume at home as well, with 3+ shots on goal in five of six, averaging 3.7 per game in that span.
Great opponent and great recent production at home gives us Point in this one.
Andrei Svechnikov (+190 FD)
Carolina has been rolling, averaging 4.4 goals scored per game on the road in their past five, the second-best mark in the NHL.
On the other end is an Ottawa team allowing 3.3 goals per game at home (11th-most) and the sixth-most on a per-game basis this season.
The nod here has to go Svechnikov, who has a goal in three straight on the road, and has 3+ shots on goal in eight straight road games.
I love that floor of volume, and on a line generating a lot of points lately against a soft opponent, I’m banking on a fourth straight road goal for Svechnikov.
Bryan Rust (+175 DK)
A familiar face in Bryan Rust is back for a second go-around. Rust helped us cash our Tuesday night parlay, and the situation that led to that choice has not changed tonight.
Rust is very involved on the power play for Pittsburgh, with 31.8% of his shots coming on the PP. Seattle averages the eighth-most penalties per game, so Rust should have his chances Thursday night.
Pittsburgh is humming at home, averaging 5.4 goals scored per game in their last five, the second-highest total in the NHL.
Seattle has been generous to goals this season, averaging the third-most per game, and 3.2 on the road in their last five.
Rust scored for us at home on Tuesday, and has 7 goals in his last six home games.
Ryan O’Reilly (+265 FD)
Of all the games highlighted here, I think St. Louis offers us the best value Thursday night.
The Blues are averaging 3.9 goals scored at home in their last ten, the sixth-most in the league. Calgary, coming off a back-to-back, is allowing an average of 4.2 goals per game in their last five road games.
Consider that Flames average for a moment. That 4.2 number, which is the fourth-highest in the league, is still so high despite a shutout Wednesday night! That feels remarkable to me, and seems to me that St. Louis is going to capitalize tonight.
It’s Ryan O’Reilly who I like Thursday, the center of the Blues top line. O’Reilly has three goals in his last two home games, and has scored in three of his last four in St. Louis.
He has three shots on goal in his last three home games, so I like his involvement when the Blues are home.
O’Reilly is also on a line with Pavel Buchnevich, who has an assist in eight of his last 10 home games, and is on the top power play unit, which never hurts our chances.
O’Reilly juices this parlay up quite a bit, bringing us the best odds Thursday. I love the spot.
Filip Forsberg (+152 FD)
Our final pick of the night is another favorite, Filip Forsberg – who was the final leg of our parlay hit on Tuesday.
Nothing has changed for Forsberg, who finds himself in another advantageous spot.
Nashville will be playing Edmonton, who are allowing the most goals per game at home in their last five games (4.4).
The Predators are scoring at a nice pace when on the road, averaging 3.6 in their last five, the ninth-most in the league.
Forsberg has loved playing on the road recently, with a goal in four straight. He has six total goals in his last six away tilts, so let’s add to that mark Thursday.
Closing Thoughts
Wednesday night was a terrific example of how this logic stretches to others, with Gaudreau missing while his team racked up six goals. His three assists were heartbreaking but show that these games offer value, and you should consider looking at each’s line-mates.
The responsible approach here, if you agree with the picks, is to bet them straight. It’s tough to pass up a couple bucks on a big parlay, though, which I’ll be doing.
These are my five favorites Thursday, so let’s have some fun! Good luck, everyone.
For all the latest Sports News Click Here
