NHL Thursday bets: Three shot props to target

We’ve just about reached the end of the NHL regular season, and with playoff seedings starting to secure, we’ve seen some teams resting their players.

That brings an uncertainty to some of these props, but the larger affect it’s had is a delay on most props.

Here, we’re proceeding with what we have, and there are three shots on goal (SOG) looks with star players in good spots. Beyond factors that make their shots appealing, these games matter, which offers confidence that standard ice-time will accompany all three shooters below.

Let’s get to the targets.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 SOG (+105 DK)

I understand the potential hesitation you may have in targeting a player against Calgary, who have been tight to shots, but there’s a lot that stacks up in Kaprizov’s favor.

The primary reason we turn to him is power play data. Calgary is averaging the second-most power play opportunities allowed (PPOA) in the last 10 games. Kaprizov is the top shooter on the Wild power play, with 22 shots skating a man-up in his past 20 games.

If Minnesota gets the three to four power plays that the Flames have been handing out of late, that could be the difference in getting Kirill to four shots.

Kaprizov is also skating at home, where he has gone over 3.5 SOG in nine of his past 11, averaging 6.6 shot attempts per game in that span.

The cherry on top is his success against Calgary this season, going over this line in both previous meetings (four and five).

Nazem Kadri over 3.5 SOG (+120 DK)

Our next stop is Nazem Kadri and the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs haven’t been very sharp of late but are still in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy for the best record in the league.

I think the former point is of more importance here, and is why I expect Colorado to work into a groove against Nashville. They need to figure things out before the playoffs begin.

Nashville is allowing 32.8 shots per game on the road in their past 10, a number that has jumped to 36.6 in just their last five.

Colorado is shooting at the seventh-highest rate at home of late, which suggests plenty of volume to go around.

I like Kadri, who has gone over his SOG in seven of his past nine, four straight at home, and all three meetings against Nashville this season.

Nashville has also been sloppy and generous with PPOA, and Kadri leads the Avalanche in power play shots in the last 20 games.

Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 SOG (+125 DK)

I think this is fantastic value for Leon Draisaitl for a few reasons. One, the opponent, San Jose, has seen 35.4 shots per game against them on the road in their L10.

Then, there’s the fact that the Sharks are allowing the sixth-most shots per game to centers since March 1 and are third in the NHL in PPOA in the past 10 games.

Draisaitl is indeed a center for the high-flying Edmonton offense, and leads the Oilers in power play shots in the past 20 games, with 20.

To me, that’s a really nice conversion of metrics that point the arrow to Draisaitl. He has hit his 3.5 SOG at a far more frequent rate at home, going over in 13 of his past 17, which includes a game against San Jose.

Best of luck tonight, that is all we have for now! Let’s keep this week rolling and cash some NHL bets on this fine Thursday.