Another rough night in the NHL on Tuesday, including an overtime loss in San Jose, and all of a sudden I’m in the red for the first time in 2023.
Luckily, we still have a month left in the regular season so I have time to get back in the black and go on another hot run.
Let’s start with some momentum tonight. I have three bets for the four games scheduled for tonight, so let’s dive into them.
NHL best bets record season-to-date
NHL best bets today
- Avalanche +130 vs. Maple Leafs
- Wild -140 vs. Blues
- Islanders/Ducks OVER 5.5 (-120)
Avalanche +130 vs. Maple Leafs
These two teams are too close for either of them to be listed as a +130 underdog. In fact, over their last 25 games the Avalanche outrank the Maple Leafs in 5-on-5 venue and score adjusted CORSI%, which measures all types of shots both for and against.
The Leafs have also had goaltending issues. Ilya Samsonov has an .877 save percentage this month and Matt Murray has allowed four goals in three-straight starts since returning from injury.
At +130, the Avalanche are worth a bet.
Wild -140 vs. Blues
The St. Louis Blues have statistically been one of the worst teams this season, and I won’t hesitate to fade them. Over their last 25 games in 5-on-5 venue and score adjust numbers, they rank second last in expected goals percentage and 27th in CORSI%.
Marc-Andre Fleury is in net tonight for the Wild, and he’s been hot as of late. He has allowed only 7 combined goals in his last 5 starts.
Islanders/Ducks OVER 5.5 (-120)
The Ducks have been the worst defensive team in the NHL this season, so despite the Islanders being a low-scoring team, I have no problem better the OVER in their game tonight.
Over their last 25 games, they’re dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 venue and score adjust expected goals against at 3.56 per game. The Islanders haven’t been much better over the same stretch, coming in at 24th in that stat.
It’s also important to note that Ilya Sorokin played last night, so the Islanders will likely opt for their backup goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, to start tonight. That will bode well for an OVER bet tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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