NFL Wild-Card betting preview: Giants, Bengals riding ATS hot streaks

By Anthony On Jan 14, 2023

Underdogs barked consistently during the 2022-23 NFL regular season by covering the spread in 55 per cent of games, while the under cashed 56 per cent of the time.

Will we continue to see those trends during Super Wild Card Weekend as No. 1 seeded Chiefs and Eagles rest up and await their divisional round opponents?

The schedule features six games. Half are projected to be decided by a field goal or less, half feature division rivalries. All are rematches from the regular season and seven of the dozen starting quarterbacks this week are making their NFL playoff debuts.

With that in mind, here’s a look at each game with moneyline and against the spread (ATS) odds, totals, plus some key regular-season betting stats and preferred picks for each matchup.

SEAHAWKS (+385) @ 49ERS (-475) | Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Seahawks +10.0/49ers -10.0
Total: 42.0
SF record ATS: 11-6 | Over/Under: 9-8
SEA record ATS: 7-10 | Over/Under: 8-9

The 49ers are riding a 10-game winning streak into the playoffs and covered the spread in eight of those victories. San Francisco has already beaten Seattle twice this season, covering as 8.5-point favourites Week 2 and as 3.0-point favourites Week 15. Both meetings between these NFC West clubs finished under the listed total.

MJ’s preferred picks: 49ers -10.0, Under 42.0

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CHARGERS (-150) @ JAGUARS (+125) | Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Chargers -2.5/Jaguars +2.5
Total: 47.5
LAC record ATS: 11-5-1 | Over/Under: 6-10-1
JAX record ATS: 8-9 | Over/Under: 8-9

A big question heading into this one is how much will the Chargers be impacted without WR Mike Williams? Despite that key injury the Chargers are the chalk. L.A. went 4-1 ATS when favoured on the road, while the Jags were a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS when listed as the home underdog. Jacksonville covered as 6.5-point road dogs and beat the Chargers outright in a 38-10 blowout Week 3.

MJ’s preferred picks: Jaguars +2.5, Jaguars ML, Under 47.5

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DOLPHINS (+625) @ BILLS (-815) | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Spread: Dolphins +14.0/Bills -14.0
Total: 43.5
BUF record ATS: 8-7-1 | Over/Under: 6-10
MIA record ATS: 9-8 | Over/Under: 8-9

These AFC East rivals split the season series 1-1 but Miami managed to cover the spread as underdogs both times. They were 3.0-point dogs in a 21-19 Week 3 win and 7.0-point dogs in a 32-29 Week 15 loss. The Dolphins had Tua Tagovailoa in both those games. What type of success can they have with seventh-round rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson behind centre? The Bills were only 2-4 ATS in divisional games and 3-4 ATS as a home favourites.

MJ’s preferred picks: Bills -14.0, Over 43.5

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GIANTS (+130) @ VIKINGS (-155) | Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Giants +3.0/Vikings -3.0
Total: 48.5
MIN record ATS: 7-9-1 | Over/Under: 11-6
NYG record ATS: 13-4 | Over/Under: 7-9-1

The Giants finished the regular season with the best ATS record. They were also best when listed as an underdog at 10-2 ATS and 6-1 ATS specifically as road dogs. Minnesota finished as the most reliable overs team in the NFL. Vikings overs were 7-2 when they are the home team but Giants road overs finished 2-5. Minnesota was just 3-8-1 ATS against fellow NFC teams. The Giants covered the 4.5-point spread in a 27-24 Vikings victory three weeks ago.

MJ’s preferred picks: Giants +3.0, Giants ML, Over 48.5

RAVENS (+350) @ BENGALS (-430) | Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Ravens +8.5/Bengals -8.5
Total: 40.5
CIN record ATS: 12-4 | Over/Under: 6-9-1
BAL record ATS: 7-9-1 | Over/Under: 5-12

No Lamar Jackson for the Ravens meant the line moved a couple more points Cincinnati’s way throughout the week. It’s now set so the Bengals need to win by two scores to cover. Seven of Cincinnati’s 12 wins were by at least two scores, including last week’s regular-season finale over Baltimore. That Week 18 game was the only Ravens game to go over the listed total since October.

MJ’s preferred picks: Bengals -8.5, Under 40.5

COWBOYS (-140) @ BUCCANEERS (+115) | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Cowboys -2.5/Bucs +2.5
Total: 45.5
DAL record ATS: 10-7 | Over/Under: 9-8
TB record ATS: 4-12-1 | Over/Under: 6-11

This is a rematch of a Week 1 win in which Dak Prescott was injured and the Bucs covered as 2.5-point road favourites in an ugly 19-3 win. It was one of only four ATS wins for the Bucs all season. Dallas went 2-3 ATS as road favourites overall. Tampa Bay overs have hit in four of the past five and Tom Brady is 7-0 all-time when playing Dallas.

MJ’s preferred picks: Bucs +2.5, Bucs ML, Under 45.5

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(Odds, plus listed point spreads and totals, via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change; moneyline odds rounded to nearest multiple of five and subject to change; trends via Covers and TeamRankings)

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