NFL Week 17 betting preview: Can Bengals extend winning and ATS streak?

By Anthony On Dec 31, 2022

The Cowboys and Titans kicked off a pivotal Week 17 on Thursday. Dallas won the game and covered the spread as road favourites over a Tennessee team that didn’t field all its starters since it’s preparing for a win-and-they’re-in game next week in Jacksonville.

Underdogs and favourites have near-identical records against the spread (ATS) over the past four weeks, which is a credit to the oddsmakers, while unders have hit in approximately 53 per cent of contests since Week 13. Earlier in the season, both unders and underdogs were hitting at or above 60 per cent.

All but two matchups this weekend are projected to be one-score contests, concluding with a coinflip game between the Bills and Bengals who boast a combined 23-7 record.

Unlike last week, winter weather is not expected to impact many games. Here’s a look at the remaining Week 17 board with betting lines, totals, tidbits and picks.

Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.

SPREAD & TOTALS

• Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) at Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) | Over/Under: 42.5
• Chicago Bears (+6.0) at Detroit Lions (-6.0) | Over/Under: 52.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.0) at Houston Texans (+4.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
• Denver Broncos (+4.0) at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
• Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New England Patriots (-2.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
• Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at New York Giants (-5.5) | Over/Under: 38.5
• New Orleans Saints (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
• Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
• Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Washington Commanders (-1.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
• San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
• New York Jets (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
• Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) at Green Bay Packers (-3.0) | Over/Under: 48.5
• Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) | Over/Under: 35.5
• Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) | Over/Under: 49.5

Atlanta has lost six of the past seven and the under hit in each of those losses. Five of the past six all-NFC matchups involving the Cardinals have gone over the total.

Bears-Lions has the week’s highest total, which isn’t surprising. Each team boasts a league-best 10-5 record on overs this season.

The Jaguars haven’t beaten the Texans since the 2017 campaign. Houston beat Jacksonville 13-6 back in Week 5.

Kansas City has covered just one of its past eight home games and none of the past five versus an AFC West opponent.

Miami has covered four in a row against New England, but just one of its past four games overall. The Patriots beat the Dolphins 20-7 in Week 1. With Tua Tagovailoa back in concussion protocol, Teddy Bridgewater gets the start for Miami. Bridgewater has been excellent ATS throughout his career, especially on the road.

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The Giants have covered six straight following a loss; New York lost a close one to Minnesota last week and can clinch a playoff berth with a victory.

The over has hit five of the past six times the Eagles and Saints have met in Philadelphia; the Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their seven most recent contests at Lincoln Financial Field.

Carolina is 3-2 ATS as road underdogs this season while Tampa Bay is 0-5-1 ATS as a home favourite.

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Cleveland unders have hit five weeks running; Washington has covered all four times they’ve played a team with a losing record this season.

The line in the 49ers-Raiders game jumped from 5.5 to 9.5 after it was announced Derek Carr was being benched; San Francisco has covered all but one game on their current eight-game winning streak.

The Jets and Seahawks both lost last week. New York is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games following a loss, while Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its past six overall.

The over hit four of the past five times the Vikings and Packers have met; the one under happened in Week 1 of this season when Minnesota won 23-7.

Chargers unders have hit in four consecutive weeks and Rams unders are 5-1 when they are the road team.

The underdog has covered in 20 of the past 29 times the Steelers and Ravens have renewed their rivalry.

Buffalo and Cincinnati are both ranked in the top six in points scored per game, yet both teams are unders teams this season. Bills unders are 5-10 and Bengals are 5-9-1. Cincinnati has won seven in a row both straight up and ATS and are an NFL best 12-3 ATS through 15 games.

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MIKEY J’s CARD

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 123-144-5)

Favourites ATS (32-37-2): Bills -1.5, Jets -1.5, Jaguars -4.0, Giants -5.5, 49ers -9.5

Underdogs ATS (29-26-3): Browns +1.5, Dolphins +2.5, Steelers +2.5, Vikings +3.0, Panthers +3.5

Overs (13-25): JAX/HOU 43.5, NO/PHI 42.5, LAR/LAC 42.5, BUF/CIN 49.5

Unders (33-35): CAR/TB 40.5, CHI/DET 52.5, PIT/BAL 35.5

Moneyline dogs (17-23): Dolphins, Steelers, Browns

(Listed odds and trends above via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)

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