NFL football is officially back and Thursday saw the Buffalo Bills humble the defending champion Los Angeles Rams on banner-unveiling night with a 31-10 victory in the opening game of the 2022 regular season.
Josh Allen looked like an MVP frontrunner as Matt Stafford and the Rams offence seemed out of sorts thanks in part to Von Miller and Buffalo’s imposing pass rush.
Buffalo was a top-four team going 9-6-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2021. They were 2.5-point favourites versus the Rams and by the fourth quarter anyone who sided with them was sitting pretty.
Unders bettors also enjoyed the result. The total was set at 51.5 and the over would’ve required at least two more scores to hit.
As you’ll see below, there’s an unusually high number of home underdogs: Ten home dogs in total in Week 1, including the Rams.
Thursday’s game had a high total yet finished well under. Only three other contests this weekend have totals exceeding 50 points.
Super Bowl-winning teams are a staggering 45-10-1 all-time in Week 1 games, which illustrates how important it is to get off on a winning note.
Here’s a look at the remainder of the Week 1 schedule with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.
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SUNDAY SPREADS & TOTALS
– New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
– Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers (-1.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
– San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears (+6.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
– Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
– Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Detroit Lions (+4.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
– Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Houston Texans (+7.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
– New England Patriots (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
– Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at New York Jets (+7.5) Over/Under: 44.5
– Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Washington Commanders (-2.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
– New York Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
– Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) | Over/Under: 53.5
– Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) | Over/Under: 52.5
– Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
– Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) | Over/Under: 50.5
* Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
* Monday Nighter
Underdogs went 142-127-3 ATS last season and the under cashed in 141 of 250 games that ended in regulation. Will those trends continue throughout 2022, and what new ones can bettors expect to emerge this season?
The highest total of the week is 53.5 in the Chiefs-Cardinals game; the lowest is 49ers-Bears at 40.5. The Colts are the lone team favoured by more than a converted touchdown.
The Ravens are among this week’s biggest favourites. They were just 1-4 ATS as road favourites in 2021, plus the team and star QB Lamar Jackson didn’t reach an agreement on a new contract. Will any of that matter against a Jets team missing their starting QB and left tackle?
Baltimore and Denver are the two most popular favourites ATS, while the Raiders have some traction as the most popular ATS underdog play among the public.
Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco are all starting against their former teams — Mayfield and Wilson are making their debuts with Carolina and Denver, respectively.
One interesting streak to watch: Lions QB Jared Goff has covered the spread in five consecutive Week 1 starts. Another is the Browns’ epic Week 1 losing streak they aim to snap. If they do so it’ll make for quite the storyline considering who they’re playing.
MIKEY J’S CARD …
(Each week throughout the regular season, I will share my top plays of the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long.)
Week 1 Favourites ATS: Chiefs (-5.5), Saints (-5.5), Ravens (-6.5)
Week 1 Underdogs ATS: Giants (+5.5), Cowboys (+2.5)
Week 1 Overs: LV/LAC 52.5, GB/MIN 47.5
Week 1 Unders: KC/ARI 53.5, SF/CHI 40.5
Week 1 Moneyline dogs: Vikings, Browns, Jaguars
Trying to not overthink things with the three faves since I view Kansas City, New Orleans and Baltimore as a clear class above their opponents. … Skipping right over the spreads, fading the public and going straight for the upset wins with Minnesota, Cleveland and Jacksonville. … Dallas was an NFL-best 13-5 ATS one season ago, and I can see their defence giving Tampa issues Sunday night. … Not high on the Titans this year; the G-Men keep it close and possibly win outright. … Mostly fading the Arizona and Chicago offences on the two unders. … Looking forward to points, points and more points in an air-it-out Raiders-Chargers barnburner during the late afternoon games.
INTRODUCING THE WEEKLY RIDLEY PARLAYS…
Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games and the NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays.
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+438): Falcons (+190), Ravens (-315), Chiefs (-245)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+818): Falcons (+190), Ravens (-315), Chiefs (-245), 49ers (-305), Colts (-350)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+2748): Falcons (+190), Ravens (-315), Chiefs (-245), 49ers (-305), Colts (-350), Broncos (-275), Eagles (-210), Dolphins -185)
Atlanta starts the season at home versus the Saints, against whom they’ve lost three of the past four. They haven’t beaten New Orleans at Mercedes-Benz Stadium since 2019 and Atlanta hasn’t won a Week 1 game since 2017. Week 1 is unpredictable yet I’m high on the Saints this season — I believe they’re a playoff team — and the defence will overpower this rebuilding Atlanta roster.
Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: Low. Would be surprised if Level 1 hits.
(Spreads and totals above via Covers; moneyline odds via Bet365 both as of Friday and subject to change.)
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