The NFC appears to be a five-team race. With each contender having five games remaining before the playoffs, we look at where each stands.
With apologies to the other NFC playoff hopefuls, only five teams matter.
The Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams have legitimate cases to be at SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI. Which team gets there largely depends on health, luck and getting hot.
As only five weeks remain in the regular season, it seems appropriate to handicap where each of the five contenders stand.
– Arizona Cardinals
With Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, the offense was back in rhythm. In beating the Chicago Bears, 33-22, Murray accounted for 182 total yards and four touchdowns, while Hopkins hauled in one of those scores. More importantly, four more interceptions for the defense.
Arizona is 10-2 and in control of the NFC playoff picture. The Cardinals see the Rams and Cowboys, but the schedule isn’t overly difficult. If the defense continues to outperform expectations as it has all year, Arizona is deservedly a favorite as we barrel towards January.
– Green Bay Packers
Coming off their bye, the Packers are almost certain to get healthier. They’re yet to get a game from All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and have only had star edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and corner Jaire Alexander for five games combined. Bakhtiari’s return is imminent, while the latter duo could be back later. Even though tight end Robert Tonyan and guard Elgton Jenkins will not be, the Packers figure to be getting better for the stretch drive.
Over the last five games, Green Bay only faces one team with a winning record — the Baltimore Ravens. Expect a strong finish and perhaps home-field advantage for a second straight year.
– Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After finishing a season sweep of the Atlanta Falcons, the Buccaneers are 9-3 and wrapping up the NFC South. Tampa Bay also has a terrific shot of getting the lone conference bye, with only next week’s game against the Buffalo Bills likely being a challenge.
The big concern for Tampa is whether its secondary can find both health and form. The defense has struggled with opponents who can throw, and in the postseason, it’ll find plenty of them. Of course, Tom Brady has seven Super Bowl rings, and this is almost the exact roster which gave him his most recent. The Bucs figure to be a very, very tough out.
– Dallas Cowboys
What to make of Dallas? The Cowboys are 8-4 after handling the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night, but the offense still went in fits. Defensively, the return of DeMarcus Lawrence and impending addition of Randy Gregory makes the pass rush fierce, but will the secondary be exposed against elite offenses? It’s a fair question.
Dallas is certainly going to win the NFC East, but can the Cowboys run with the big boys like Tampa Bay and Green Bay come January? The offensive firepower makes you think they’ll be right there, but inexperience and questionable coaching are concerns.
– Los Angeles Rams
Beating the Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t calming fears, many of which I wrote about at length in Friday’s feature on Sean McVay. We know the Rams can be explosive in the passing game, and when the front is healthy, a terror rushing the passer. In short, when things are humming, Los Angeles is elite.
The question is whether the Rams can win when things aren’t ideal. Can Los Angeles go on the road and win in bad weather? Can Matthew Stafford — who has never won a playoff game — take down Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in January? The talent is clear, but so are the uncertainties.
Power rankings
Top 10 snow-game venues in NFL history
1. Metropolitan Stadium – Minnesota Vikings
2. Lambeau Field – Green Bay Packers
3. Mile High Stadium – Denver Broncos
4. Highmark Stadium – Buffalo Bills
5. Soldier Field – Chicago Bears
6. Tiger Stadium – Detroit Lions
7. Cleveland Municipal Stadium – Cleveland Browns
8. Foxboro Stadium – New England Patriots
9. Three Rivers Stadium – Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Veterans Stadium – Philadelphia Eagles
Quotable
What a win, and what a moment for the Detroit Lions. Kudos to head coach Dan Campbell for a phenomenal gesture to lift up a hurting community.
Podcast
Random stat
Since 1970, the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts have won the AFC East six times. The New York Jets have only done so once.
Info learned this week
1. Chargers top Bengals, and in the process put pressure on Chiefs
It wasn’t easy. In fact, it was downright ugly at times. But the Los Angeles Chargers won.
After a 41-22 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles is 7-4 and second in the AFC West, only a game back of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers, buoyed by four Bengals turnovers, got a critical victory and now have a slew of winnable games down the stretch, starring with the Giants at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
If the Chargers can handle business — and that’s a big if historically speaking — their Week 15 date with the Chiefs could determine plenty in both the division and AFC playoff picture.
Meanwhile, the Bengals might have seen their best chance to win the AFC North slide by. Cincinnati has a brutal slate ahead, including dates with the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens and Browns among others. It won’t be an easy road to the postseason.
2. Ravens run out of miracles, and now a gauntlet awaits
With the ball tipping off Mark Andrews’ fingers, the Baltimore Ravens fell 20-19 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It might be the play that ultimately defines the Ravens’ push for the AFC’s top seed.
Going into the season’s final five weeks, nobody has a tougher slate. The Ravens are on the road for rematches with the Bengals and Browns, while hosting the Packers, Rams and Steelers. None will be easy, and even with a solid 3-2 mark, that’s likely not enough to earn the conference’s lone bye come January.
All year, Baltimore has lived on the proverbial edge The Ravens have won absurd games against the Lions, Vikings, Chiefs, Colts and Browns. On Sunday, they were on the other side, and even though 8-4 is a solid record, the teeth of their schedule are approaching.
3. Chiefs’ offense is struggling, but the defense is playing like leagues best
Who needs to score points when you never give them up?
This seems to be Kansas City’s credo these days. The offense notched a touchdown on a scripted drive and then drove for a field goal on its second possession. After that? Kansas City scored three points following a Denver muffed punt on its own 16-yard line, had another drive for a field goal, and got a Dan Sorensen pick-six. On the night, 267 offensive yards.
Still, the Chiefs demolished the Broncos, holding them to three points before a garbage-time touchdown. Over its five-game winning streak, Kansas City has allowed a total of 56 points, or 11.2 per game.
The Chiefs are getting constant pressure behind a front four of Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Jarran Reed and Melvin Ingram. The young linebacker duo of Nick Bolton and Willie Gay is best described as thunder and lightning. In the secondary, Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton and L’Jarius Sneed are playing phenomenally in zone and man, while Juan Thornhill and Tyrann Mathieu have anchored the back end.
Add it all up, and Kansas City is 8-4 and threatening. If the offense figures things out, good night.
4. Washington is making a move, while the Raiders could be through
The NFL is all about parity, fortune and circumstance. We see that for Washington and Las Vegas.
With a 17-15 victory, the Football Team has won four straight and at 6-6, is the sixth seed in the NFC playoff picture. The remainder of their schedule takes place in the NFC East, including a pair of matchups with the Cowboys. Ron Rivera’s team is rolling, and the schedule isn’t exactly daunting as the games become more important.
As for the Raiders, also 6-6, they must feel like it’s almost over. Las Vegas has games left at Cleveland and Kansas City, along with rematches against the Chargers and Broncos at Allegiant Stadium. It’s going to be a long road to a wild card spot, especially in a division where nobody has a losing record.
5. In Bills-Patriots, all the pressure is on Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills were supposed to cruise in the lousy AFC East. Then the New England Patriots showed up.
Buffalo, which began the year 4-1 and instantly become the odds-on favorite to emerge from the AFC, has struggled to a 3-3 mark in its past six games. Meanwhile, in that same span, the Patriots are 6-0, pushing a half-game ahead in the division.
Now, they meet for the first time this year, with Western New York as the setting.
Undoubtedly, this game is a referendum on the Bills. New England has a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones. The Patriots aren’t supposed to win the division. They aren’t supposed to be a serious contender. Buffalo, after losing in the AFC Championship Game last January, was earmarked as the main challenger to Kansas City. This is when the Bills are supposed to take the next step and reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.
Yes, the Patriots desperately want to win. A victory, and they’re in firm control of the AFC East while having real designs of home-field advantage. However, a loss and New England can still wrestle back control on Dec. 26 in the rematch at Foxboro.
For Buffalo, the tilt represents a chance to get right, to restore order. Should it lose, a trip to Tampa Bay awaits, and so too Tom Brady, the Bills’ ultimate nemesis.
Buffalo can still accomplish its dreams, but a loss could portend a nightmare.
Gambler’s game
Over at WynnBet, the Tennessee Titans are a 10.5-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Even with Tennessee off its bye, take Jacksonville to cover. It’s a divisional game, and more importantly, Tennessee’s still without receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, and running back Derrick Henry.
Two cents
Few teams face such a confounding 2022 as the Minnesota Vikings.
Regardless of how their season ends, the Vikings will be in tough position trying to figure a path forward. According to Over The Cap, Minnesota projects to be a $6.3 million above the projected threshold, and it’s without many escape routes via easy-cut contracts.
The Vikings’ biggest issue is quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is set for the massive cap hit of $45 million. Normally, the move would be to extend him, but does Minnesota want Cousins beyond ’22?
Minnesota will need to either extend or release star defensive end Danielle Hunter. The latter saves $18.6 million while the former spreads out his $26.1 million cap hit over future years. Of course, Hunter is arguably the team’s best player when healthy, but he’s done for the year with a torn pec.
Star linebacker Anthony Barr is also on the books for $9.89 million with his contract set to void, leaving Minnesota with very few options of how to improve.
For a team which desperately needs to improve the offensive line and secondary, Minnesota has precious few ways to do it beyond nailing the draft.
Inside the league
Throughout the season, I’ve spent time talking to people in personnel departments about the upcoming quarterback crop for the 2022 NFL Draft.
It seems two thoughts are universally true: the class is underwhelming, and a few guys will be pushed up through the pre-draft process. The most-likely names are Malik Willis (Liberty), Matt Corral (Ole Miss), Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) and Sam Howell (UNC).
Looking at both the season’s results and the draft order, there’s three teams who make the most sense to take a chance.
If the New York Giants don’t use their two first-round picks to land a veteran quarterback in the trade market, they could make a move in the draft. It’s likely general manager Dave Gettleman isn’t back, and so whoever replaces him has a choice. Stick with Daniel Jones, package the picks and outbid others for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson, or take a quarterback early.
Then, a few teams in the NFC South to watch. The Carolina Panthers can’t move forward with Sam Darnold running unopposed for the starting job. Carolina’s only real avenue is the draft, as the free-agent crop is without a starter and it doesn’t have enough ammo to make a trade.
The Saints are the other, as they face their annual, desperate cap crunch. New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis could opt to go with Jameis Winston off his torn ACL, or try to set the franchise up for the next 15 years.
There’s a long, long way to go before the draft, but early returns say drafting a quarterback early is fraught with danger and absolutely going to happen anyway.
History lesson
In 1972, the Miami Dolphins recorded the only perfect season in NFL history.
However, their playoff odyssey was extraordinarily bizarre. Miami almost lost in the Divisional round to the Cleveland Browns, who entered the game at 10-4. Cleveland, led by quarterback Mike Phipps, led 14-13 in the fourth quarter before the Dolphins went ahead in the final minutes on a Jim Kiick touchdown, winning 20-14.
The following week, Miami was on the road against the Steelers. Until 1975, home-field advantage wasn’t determined by record but a rotational basis predicated on divisions. Still, the Dolphins were too much for Pittsburgh, winning 21-17.
Finally, the Super Bowl against Washington. Despite being undefeated, Miami was only a 1.5-point favorite but ultimately proved its mettle, winning 17-7 to finish off the only perfect season the league has ever seen.
Parting shot
Antonio Brown should have been suspended for the remainder of the season.
Last week, the Buccaneers receiver was banned for three games after being found to have submitted a false COVID-19 vaccination card. Brown will be reinstated for Week 17, just in time for Tampa Bay’s playoff push.
The call for a longer suspension isn’t rooted in personal beliefs on the vaccines. It’s about misleading both the organization and league on a health issue which has killed more than 750,000 Americans since the pandemic began last year. Additionally, the Buccaneers have a head coach in Bruce Arians who has thrice defeated cancer, and an 83-year-old assistant coach in Tom Moore.
What Brown did wasn’t only selfish, it was reckless as hell.
He should pay far more than three paychecks.
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