‘New normal’ of China’s military push across Taiwan Strait could spin out of control: Analysts

In the past, crossing the centre line was rare, said Mr Haenle, who served as the White House’s China director on the National Security Council during the George W Bush and Barack Obama administrations. 

“Today, it’s become fairly routine,” he added, noting that China sent a record 18 bombers into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone last week. 

“So this constitutes a sort of a new normal, and it gives the PLA a stronger and more advantageous position, which they now have after Pelosi’s visit.”

However, Ms Pelosi’s controversial trip was not the first time a US House Speaker had visited Taiwan. In 1997, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich also did so. 

Mr Haenle, director at Carnegie China and chairman of Teneo Asia Pacific, said the question that many have raised is whether Taiwan is better off after Ms Pelosi’s trip. 

Pointing out that the visit was just about two months before the important 20th Chinese Communist Party’s Congress in October, he said: “The Chinese military was standing by to take advantage of the tensions as they rose and to respond to the crisis, in a way that now has given it a pretty significant military advantage.”

US’ CONCERN OVER THE FUTURE OF TAIWAN

At the Communist Party Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China wants a peaceful reunification, but reserves the right to take all necessary measures including the use of force.

In November, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Mr Xi told his US counterpart Joe Biden that the Taiwan issue is a “first red line” in bilateral ties that must not be crossed.

The future of Taiwan remains a concern for the US, especially in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, said observers. 

“The military aggression, and the military coercion and activity that the PLA is conducting around Taiwan is really intensifying and it’s been intensifying for the last several years,” said Mr Haenle.