Pivotal. There’s a word you’ll see thrown out about ten thousand times between now and tipoff tonight. Game 5. 2-2. PIVOTAL.
Let’s talk about actual pivot points in these two series. The Philadelphia 76ers got Joel Embiid back, the Miami Heat will be without Kyle Lowry for Game 5 and that series turned on a dime with two home wins for Philly. And with Embiid having a huge impact on both ends of the floor despite a broken face, it’s probably time to completely reassess this series.
The Dallas Mavericks were able to turn things around by unlocking Jalen Brunson on offence, unleashing Reggie Bullock on Chris Paul on defence, and taking advantage of (causing?) a well-timed, two-game Chris Paul playoff meltdown.
And I think it’s time to officially fade my picks, because boy did I ever have the bad beat of a lifetime on Monday night. I went three for four on my Sicko Same Game Parlay (+750), with the only miss coming when Dillon Brooks’ meaningless, buzzer beater banked in to bring the final score to 101-98 to backdoor cover my 5.5 alternative point spread.
Pain.
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Overall record against the spread: 17-19-1
Philadelphia 76ers (+3, +140) at Miami Heat (-3, -160) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
I really don’t like to switch my series pick midway through unless it’s obvious I was wrong in my reasoning. That’s not necessarily been the case. But the impact Embiid has had on both ends has been immense. He’s swallowing up entire possessions on defence, getting buckets and opening up the floor for James Harden on offence.
It’s enough for me to completely rethink my position after picking the Heat to win the series.
The Heat just squandered a vintage Jimmy Butler game (40 points on 65/33/92 shooting splits) and what could easily be the most efficient game Bam Adebayo will have for the rest of the series now that Embiid is on him. But I’m still in Trust My Gut Mode.
Miami’s shooting should bounce back at home so I’m picking the Heat (-3). I also like Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 rebounds, and I’m going to keep hammering Danny Green’s OVER 7.5 points as he continued to get tons of open looks in Game 4.
Dallas Mavericks (+6, +220) at Phoenix Suns (-6, -270) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
All due respect to The Point God, but the Mavericks, spear-headed by Reggie Bullock, locked Chris Paul up in Dallas. Paul scored 12 points on 7-11 shooting with 11 assists and NINE turnovers in Games 3 and 4. He also fouled out with just 23 minutes played on Sunday.
I think the adjustment the Mavs made to get Jalen Brunson going again is sustainable. CP3 playing that poorly is not. The Suns can take solace in the fact that they were right there in both games despite Paul’s down road trip.
We should see an angry Chris Paul Tuesday night, and a defensive adjustment from Phoenix coach Monty Williams. This also feels like the kind of game where a Great Team™ produces a statement game, and I do think Phoenix is on that level this year. Give me the Suns (-6), with a little Chris Paul OVER 16.5 points
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1000
· Miami Heat -3
· Danny Green OVER 7.5 rebounds
· Jimmy Butler OVER 25.5 points
· Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 rebounds
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
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