NATO to pledge aid to Baltics and Ukraine, urge Turkey to let in Nordics at Madrid summit

TURKEY VETO

NATO – created in 1949 to counter the Soviet threat – is under no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine, as the former Soviet republic is not a NATO member.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Feb 24 invasion has sparked a geopolitical shift as once neutral countries Finland and Sweden seek to join NATO while Ukraine has formally become a candidate to join the European Union.

If accepted, Finland and Sweden’s inclusion into NATO would bring about the expansion of the alliance that the Russian leader aimed to prevent.

“I think it sends an important message to Putin. And I think it would actually significantly strengthen the alliance,” US Senator Angus King said of Finland and Sweden, following a trip to Finland, Latvia and Turkey.

However, Turkey is also testing that unity, angered by what it says is Helsinki and Stockholm’s support for Kurdish militants and arms embargoes on Ankara.

A Turkish government official involved in the talks between the three countries and NATO’s Stoltenberg told Reuters that it would be difficult to reach a deal at the summit, saying that Sweden and Finland must first address Turkish concerns.

“There were meetings, but unfortunately steps we expected are not being taken,” the official said.

Sweden has set up a process for ongoing consultations, diplomats said. But two senior NATO diplomats said that the dispute was less about technical benchmarks and more about politics.

Erdogan’s stance has proved popular at home before a June 2023 presidential election as he seeks to challenge US and European priorities. In recent weeks, he has threatened more military operations in northern Syria, stoked tensions with fellow NATO member Greece and declined to join Western sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war.

“I think there’s nearly zero chance that this issue will be resolved at the Madrid summit,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey analyst at the Washington Institute, a US think-tank.

US President Joe Biden could hold a meeting with Erdogan in the margins of the NATO summit to push for progress with Finland and Sweden, whose leaders will be in Madrid.

But Cagaptay added that Erdogan could try to use the situation to boost his popularity and call a possible snap election in November ahead of the official June 2023 vote.