The investment banking and financial services company’s annual ‘Music in the Air’ forecast predicts that a combination of global streaming growth, emerging platforms such as TikTok, the revival of the live music market and the growing strength of vinyl sales will drive the recorded music industry revenues to $52.3 billion by 2030, a $7.5 billion boost over last year’s prediction.
The report by analyst Lisa Yang,however, tempers some of its predictions for the coming year due to the “impact of a weaker macro” and the effect of Russia’s war on Ukraine, which largely removes both countries from the global music economy, ‘Variety’ reports.
It also points to the competition between streaming companies as a positive, with Spotify emerging as “the clear leader” with a 34.4 per cent of the global market share, although its lead is diminishing. YouTube Music and China’s Tencent Music are gaining while Apple Music and Amazon Music remain “broadly stable”.
And although Goldman Sach, according to ‘Variety’, lowered its projection for the total number of paid streaming subscribers by 2030 — from 1.277 billion to 1.26 billion — it raised its streaming revenue projection based on ARPU (average revenue per user), from $42.8 to $45.8.
Not surprisingly, the report predicts a continued dominance of the three majors — Sony, Universal and
— although some independents, notably France’s Believe, continue to rise. Its projections for live music for 2030 remained stable, with a forecast that it will generate $38.3 billion this year.
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