Karnataka election results: With exit polls predicting hung verdict, Congress & BJP woo JD(S); counting to begin at 8am on May 13

(This story originally appeared in on May 12, 2023)

NEW DELHI: The results of the hotly contested Karnataka assembly elections will be declared on Saturday. The counting will begin at 8 am in 36 centres across the state, and poll officials expect a clear picture about the outcome to emerge by mid-day.

Karnataka Exit poll: BJP, Congress reject survey results, both claim to form next govt

Voting for the 224-member Karnataka state assembly concluded as Congress and BJP conducted an intense campaign. Two exit polls predicted a comfortable win for Congress but most of the exit polls have predicted a hung Assembly in the state. Now, all eyes are on May 13, the day when the votes will be counted. Both parties are claiming that they will win the election and form the government. The JD(S) too ran a spirited campaign led solely by former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy. Exit polls say JD(S) may emerge as the kingmaker.

The electoral fortunes of top leaders– chief minister Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP, Congress heavyweights Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar and JD(S)’ H D Kumaraswamy, among many others will be known on Saturday.

Elaborate security arrangements have been made across the State, especially in and around the counting centres, to avoid any untoward incidents.

The state registered a “record” turnout of 73.19% in the voting on May 10, to elect representatives to the 224 member assembly.

With most exit polls predicting a tight contest between the Congress and BJP, leaders of the two parties seem “jittery” over the outcome, while the JD(S) appears to be expecting a hung verdict, which would enable it to play a role in government formation once again.

Most pollsters have given an edge to the Congress over the ruling BJP, while also indicating the possibility of a hung assembly in the state.Having banked on the Modi juggernaut, the ruling BJP is looking to break a nearly 40-year-old poll jinx where the people have never voted the incumbent party to power, while the Congress is hoping for a morale booster victory to give it a much-needed elbow room and momentum to position itself as the main opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

It also remains to be seen whether former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led JD(S) will emerge as a “kingmaker” or a “king” by holding the key to government formation, in the event of a hung verdict, as it has done in the past.

“A government with full majority” was the strong pitch of the leaders of all the political parties during the high-decibel, no holds barred campaigning, as they stressed on getting a clear mandate to form a strong and stable government, unlike what happened after the 2018 polls.

Will we see a repeat of 2018?
The BJP had then emerged as the single largest party by winning 104 seats, followed by Congress with 80 seats and JD(S) 37. There was also one independent member, while the BSP and Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) got one legislator each elected.

In the 2018 elections, the Congress garnered a vote-share of 38.04%, followed by the BJP (36.22%) and the JD(S) (18.36%).

With no party getting a clear majority at the time and as Congress and JD(S) were trying to forge an alliance, B S Yediyurappa of the BJP, which was the single largest party, staked claim and formed the government. However, it was dissolved within three days, ahead of a trust vote, as the saffron party strongman was unable to muster the required numbers.

Subsequently, the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government with Kumaraswamy as CM, but the wobbly dispensation collapsed in 14 months, triggered by the resignation of 17 ruling coalition legislators and their subsequent defection to the BJP. This enabled the BJP’s return to power. In the bypolls held subsequently in 2019, the ruling party won 12 out of 15 seats.

Karnataka polls 2023: In a situation of hung assembly, know how could Congress and JD(S) make the most of an alliance

Author and journalist Suguta Srinivasaraju shared his views on what if the Congress falls short of 5-10 seats and how an alliance of Congress and JD-S could work for the formation of the government in state. He said the JD-S would keep the key portfolios and they can indicate a candidate of a particular caste for the post of chief minister.

In the outgoing assembly, the ruling BJP has 116 MLAs, followed by the Congress 69, JD(S) 29, BSP one, independents two, speaker one and vacant six (following deaths and resignations to join other parties ahead of the polls).

Karnataka polls 2023: What will happen if JD(S) and BJP tie-up?

Author and journalist Suguta Srinivasaraju said it is very unlikely that JD-S will go with the BJP if a situation arises, but if Kumaraswamy joins hands with the saffron party, there would be a greater degree of caution in his mind. He said it would not be easy for JD(S) as they have to focus on their vote share too in future if they go with the BJP.

‘JD(S) has decided who it will support’
Meanwhile, JD(S) national spokesperson Tanveer Ahmed on Friday said they have already decided which party they would support in forming the government after the results are declared.

“We have already decided with whom we are going to form the government. We will announce it to the public when the appropriate time comes,” he said.

“We have certain programs for the betterment of Karnataka. And we know who is capable of fulfilling that. The party knows who is going to work for issues such as women empowerment, farmers, education, employment, etc and we will go with the same,” he added.

Meanwhile, both the Congress and BJP have denied talking to the JD(S) for a post-poll alliance, each asserting that they will cross the majority mark of 113 comfortably under their own steam.
(With inputs from agencies)