Jabs  find  way  to  poor states finally as rich ones get nearly done

The seven richest states have given 81% of their adults the first dose, while the seven poorest have covered just 69%. Almost 37% of adults in the rich group are fully vaccinated, but the share is 22% in the poorest states.

With first shots nearly done, the high-income states are going through a relative lull as those who got their first doses recently await their second. This seems to be freeing up doses for the poor states, which had been struggling to access vaccines.

Since September, high-income states have administered 28.5% of all doses given in India, while low-income ones gave 37.7%. This is somewhat in line with the population share of these states. However, between 1 May and 20 June, when states largely had to procure jabs on their own, high-income states cornered as much as 32.9% of the doses and low-income states 30.5%—an alarming mismatch with their population shares.

Delhi, Haryana, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat are the seven richest states based on per capita income and Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh are the poorest.

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Only the top 21 states by economic output were considered for this analysis as the rest, having low populations, could extend high vaccination coverage irrespective of income levels.

Rahul Bajoria, chief economist at Barclays Investment Bank, said the rapid catch-up in vaccine coverage in areas that had previously lagged was because of improved supply in recent months. However, poorer, highly populated states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar might still struggle because their state capacity to vaccinate large cohorts may not be the same as others, even if supplies pick up, he said.

Fortunately for India, the vaccination inequities may not have hurt the economy. Larger, richer states were hit by the pandemic for longer, while poorer ones were able to open up quicker regardless of vaccination progress.

“There is no real sign of major underperformance (in economic recovery) in eastern (poorer) parts,” Bajoria said. “If anything, western parts have recovered more slowly due to more services consumption.”

Global inequities between poor and rich countries in vaccination are far greater than within India.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said that with vaccine coverage improving, economic recovery was likely to become broad-based, especially the demand for services. “The September upswing suggests that vaccine hesitancy has largely dissipated, which may result in a closing of the inter-state gap going ahead,” she said.

India’s vaccination drive has accelerated in patches since August but keeps faltering. Most spikes have been preceded and followed by lulls, as seen around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s birthday last month.

The country has averaged 5.8 million doses a day in October, against a peak of 7.9 million last month.

A double-shot for each adult is still 156 days away (mid-March 2022) if this month’s pace is maintained, Mint projections show. And September’s pace would bring that day forward by over a month.

The government had earlier targeted to complete adult vaccination by the year-end.