The FIFA World Cup in Qatar has reached its business end. Only four games remain in what has been a tournament for the ages. Upsets have been the central theme with several dark horses punching well above their weight. The World Cup has also demonstrated that possession-based football is not the only way to win football games.
Teams like Morocco, Japan, South Korea and Australia managed to make their way to the knockouts without having the lion’s share of possession.
Japan throughout their stay in the tournament had an average ball possession of 35 per cent. Compare it to Spain (75.8 per cent) who lost to Japan in the group stage and the difference in possession is a staggering 40 per cent.
In the match between the two teams, Spain dominated the game with 83 per cent possession and 12 shots with five on target. However, Japan with a measly 17 per cent possession managed to edge out the 2010 champions, courtesy of goals from Ritsu Doan and Ao Tanaka.
Notably, this was not the first time that Spain suffered a WC defeat despite bossing the game in possession. In 2018, Spain lost to Russia on penalties after having 79 per cent possession.
Japan followed a similar script against Germany where they only had 26 per cent possession. The game ended 2-1 in Japan’s favour as Germany (3.53) only won on the expected goals metric.
Speaking of Asian teams, South Korea en route the round of 16 conducted a 2002-esque giant-killing operation by beating 2016 Euro champions Portugal.
During the match, Korea had 38 per cent possession to Portugal’s 62 per cent. Yet the Asian outfit matched Portugal on number of shots and shots on target. Eventually, it was Korea’s counter-attacking game that proved too hot for the Portuguese side.
Of the four semifinalists, Morocco have the lowest possession percentage standing at 32.4 per cent. To give a perspective, the number is far lower than the possession figure of Australia, Japan and Saudi Arabia, who fashioned some of the memorable upsets of the tournament.
Morocco have reached the last four of the tournament solely based on the philosophy of defending deep and making incisive moves with royal efficiency. The Atlas Lions have defeated the likes of Belgium, Spain and Portugal in the World Cup without conceding a goal. Their xG (3.13) is the lowest of the lot yet they are the ones on the verge of creating history.
Lionel Messi has accumulated more xG (4.16) at the World Cup than Morocco (3.13).
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) December 11, 2022
Top teams are also avoiding a possession-based game
Even teams like the Netherlands who narrowly missed out on a semifinal berth played a less pressing game. Manager Louis Van Gaal set up his team in a mid-block; meaning the men-in-Orange were happy to concede the ball, sit back, soak pressure and create high-quality chances in between.
However, in the Argentina game, Sacloni’s men allowed the Dutch to have the ball which was antithetical to the philosophy they had followed in the World Cup till then. The goal by Molina and Messi threw a monkey wrench into the plans and the Dutch were forced to attack the ball.
Argentina had used a similar ploy in the Copa America the previous year where Messi dropped in deep and carried the transitions on his shoulder.
France under Didier Deschamps have also not shied away from surrendering the ball and allowing teams to dominate. In the game against Poland, France gave ample opportunities to Lewandowski and co. to create before countering on a stretched Polish defence.
Kylian Mbappe’s pace and Antoine Griezzman being allowed to roam free in the inverted regions have allowed France to counter with a lethal pace. It is reminiscent of the 2018 World Cup where Mbappe was the wide outlet while the likes of Blaise Matuiti stretched the midfield by hugging the touchline.
Spain and Germany won successive World Cups with a possession-based game. However, since then, both have failed to make it big at the quadrennial event, suggesting that opposition teams are willing to allow them to knock the ball away from their final third while waiting to pounce on a counter-attack opportunity.
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