Iraq war has drastically altered US views and strategies on warfare, 20 years after invasion, say analysts

“There were elements of success and elements of failure,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“I think most people looking back on it would say we should not have done that, they would not do it again just because of the long campaign that resulted.”

WANING US INFLUENCE

Twenty years on, the impact of the Iraq war is still felt.  

An increasing number of Americans are saying the US should not have gotten involved in Iraq, and that the invasion only undermined US influence in the Middle East. The latest example of that waning influence was seen earlier this month when Iran and Saudi Arabia re-established relations in a deal brokered not by the US, but by China.

The Iraq war also created a reluctance to put US boots on the ground in conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the WMD debacle has led to a lingering caution to act solely on intelligence – something which Cancian said will have a bearing on how the US responds to any possible threats to Taiwan.

“I think there would still be a lot of scepticism about taking action before the Chinese actually conduct some clear operations,” said Cancian, who is also a retired marine colonel.

“I think if the intelligence community came to the president and said their assessment is the Chinese are going to attack Taiwan, there would be a lot of push back, (a wait-and-see on) how it unfolds, and a reluctance to take aggressive action just on the basis of the intelligence.”