India’s Fiscal Deficit At Rs 7.58 Lakh Crore In April-October 2022; 45.6% Of Full-Year Target

India’s fiscal deficit during April-October 2022 stood at Rs 7.58 lakh crore, or 45.6 per cent of the full-fiscal target, according to the official data released on Wednesday. In the corresponding period last year, the deficit had stood at 36.3 per cent of the full-year target or Rs 5.47 lakh crore.

The fiscal deficit is the difference between expenditure and revenue.

During the first seven months of the current financial year, the country’s total receipts stood at Rs 13.86 lakh crore, while the total expenditure was Rs 21.44 lakh crore. As percentage of the current financial year’s target, India’s receipts and expenditures hit 60.7 per cent and 54.3 per cent during April-October 2022.

India’s net tax receipts increased to Rs 11.71 lakh crore, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Wednesday.

During April-September 2022, the central government’s fiscal deficit had touched 37.3 per cent of the full-year target or Rs 6.19 lakh crore.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said, “Taking into account the estimated additional expenditure that is likely in FY2023, we estimate the extent of the overshoot in the fiscal deficit at a modest Rs 1 lakh crore, given the considerable upside seen in non-excise tax revenues as well as savings expected under other expenditure heads. The fiscal deficit in FY2023 is unlikely to exceed the budgeted 6.4 per cent of GDP, on a higher nominal GDP (ICRA exp: +15 per cent) vis-à-vis what was indicated in the budget (+9.1 per cent).”

She added that in April-October FY2023, while the Government of India’s net tax revenues reported a healthy growth of 11 per cent, the 14 per cent contraction in non-tax revenues, combined with the 10 per cent rise in revenue expenditure, and the robust 62 per cent expansion in capex, widened the fiscal deficit to Rs 7.6 lakh crore in April-Oct FY2023 from Rs 5.5 lakh crore in the first seven months of FY2022.”

Nayar also said that notwithstanding a normalising base, gross tax revenues reported a healthy 21 per cent YoY growth in October 2022, led by Corporation tax, income tax and customs duty, with the rise in CGST being partly boosted by the settlement of IGST between the Centre and the states.

“Based on the available trends, we expect the gross tax revenues in FY2023 to exceed the BE by a considerable Rs. 3.1 trillion. Following the double-tranche of taxes devolved to the state governments in November 2022, we estimate that Rs. 3.8 trillion remains to be disbursed to the states in the last four months, based on our estimate of the FY2023 gross tax revenues,” Nayar said.

She also said that despite a step-up in tax devolution and the reduction in the cesses on petrol and diesel, the net tax receipts of the GoI have surpassed 60 per cent of the FY2023 BE in the first seven months, suggesting a healthy overshoot of Rs 2 lakh crore relative to the budgeted level.

In Union Budget 2021, the Centre had announced a target of Rs 1.75 lakh crore from stake sale in public sector companies and financial institutions, including two PSU banks and one insurance company in FY22.

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