IMD predicts monsoon onset on 4 June, Skymet sees 7 June

The crucial southwest monsoon starts its journey into the Indian subcontinent from the Kerala coast around 1 June with a standard deviation of about seven days. Monsoon rainfall is critical for agriculture production, which accounts for about 18% of the economy and is the largest employer.

“After cyclone Mocha, there is a cyclone in the southern hemisphere. If the cyclone in the southern hemisphere was not there, then Mocha would have influenced the development of monsoon in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone is moving towards the African coast. From the southern hemisphere, southwest monsoon will enter Kerala coast via north Arabian Sea,” said K.J. Ramesh, former IMD director-general. “Because of this, the advancement of the development of monsoon is delayed by a few days. However, it will pick pace soon.”

Last month, IMD predicted a normal monsoon this year, offering hope to millions of farmers. Forecast of below-normal monsoon rains for 2023 by Skymet, however, posed mounting risks to rural incomes, consumption and economic growth. It had said that rains in the June-September season will be 94% of the long-period average due to the impact of the El Niño weather pattern, linked to droughts or poor rainfall in India. The IMD had forecast rains at 96% of the long period average.

“There are primarily two reasons behind the likely delay. First is the anticyclone persisting over the Arabian Sea will not allow monsoon winds to reach Kerala coast on time, and the second is the cyclone over the Arabian Sea, ‘Fabian,’ which will disturb monsoon currents,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president, meteorology, and climate change at Skymet, told Mint.

Southwest monsoon setting in the entire nation could be predicted after it makes an onset over Kerala by June 7, Palawat added.

The IMD had said India will likely receive normal rains during the four-month monsoon season, and that the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are expected to counter the evolving El Nino conditions.

IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the season. Last year, monsoon rains were 106% of the average, boosting food grain output in 2022-23.

As far as the agriculture sector is concerned, Kerala is not a crop producing state though it is the first one to receive monsoon winds, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. “What is important is how quickly these winds spread to the rest of the country and more importantly remain strong enough to provide the necessary water for growing crops.”

IMD had also predicted that El Nino conditions could develop during the monsoon season, the impact of which is likely be visible in the second half of the season (August-September). “While the impact of a slight delay in monsoon would not be material, the occurrence of an El Nino may impact the agricultural output and rural income,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head—research & outreach at ICRA.

There is a 35% probability of monsoon being normal, 29% chance of it being below normal, 22% possibility of it being deficient, 11% chance of monsoon being above normal, and only 3% chance of it being excess, as per IMD.

“The impact of El Nino will be stronger on sectors which are dependent upon agricultural output; for instance, edible oil, sugar, cotton spinning mills,” Nayar said.

Food inflation will trend downwards in general. “We need to be watchful on prices of wheat in view of FCI has not been able to procure its set estimated target as well as pulses which stocks are limited,” said Sabnavis.” “Prices of both these sets of commodities have been on the rise.”