Hindering the arrival of monsoon in India, a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to intensify and transform into a cyclonic storm, said the India Meteorological Department on Tuesday.
The depression was observed over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat and it is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm.
The depression lay about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, at 5:30 am, reported PTI.
The report said that the storm is located nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
On Monday, the IMD had predicted the formation of the low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea. The press release also presented the chances of the storm to affect the monsoon towards the Kerala coast.
Arabian Sea’s cyclone can affect monsoon’s arrival
Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet predicted the threat of the cyclonic formation in the Arabian sea to the monsoon in India. It said that the influence of Arabian sea cyclonic formation can make it difficult for the monsoon stream to reach coastal parts and even struggle to penetrate beyong the Western Ghats.
When will monsoon arrive in Kerala?
The monsoon entry in Kerala has been delayed this time, and the weather department is still unclear about when monsoon will arrive in the state. According to the private forecasting agency, Skymet weather, the monsoon onset over Kerala will happen on June 8 or June 9 and is expected to be a “meek and mild entry,” reported PTI.
Skymet had predicted the arrival of monsoon in Kerala to be on June 7, with an error margin of three days.
“The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with,” the private weather forecasting agency said.
In normal situation, monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said monsoon might enter in Kerala by June 4.
Last four years witnessed a an early arrival of monsoon in Kerala. In 2022, the southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29. In 2021, it took entry on June 3, the monsoon entred on June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
Monsoon’s delay in Kerala, less rainfall in India in 2023?
Scientists have assured that delayed onset over Kerala, doesn’t necessarily mean delay in the arrival of monsoon in the rest of India. They have also said that it does not impact the total total rainfall over the country during the season. They assured that India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.
The northwestern part of India, is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. In east and northeast, central and south peninsula, normal rainfall will stand at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.
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Updated: 06 Jun 2023, 12:48 PM IST
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