Huge world pushback against China

A showdown in the South China Sea continues as China’s stranglehold is called into question by the world’s super powers.

Satellite photos expose a showdown brewing in the South China Sea. Against all assurances, Beijing has armed its artificial island fortresses with aircraft and warships. Now the world is pushing back.

Beijing said it guaranteed free and open access to the South China Sea’s shipping lanes. Beijing said it would never militarise the region. But that’s all changed.

Between May and June, satellite photos found Chinese Y-8Q and KQ-200 anti-submarine and KJ-500 radar command aircraft along with anti-submarine and troop-carrying helicopters had become a permanent feature on the artificial Subi and Mischief Reef island fortresses.

Since then, People’s Liberation Army Navy destroyers and frigates have joined them.

Now a new set of imagery reveals what they’ve been up to.

Hunting submarines. And they’ve had plenty to keep them busy.

Sub-surface tension

Submarines from all over the world have been converging on the disputed South China Sea in support of a 2015 international court of arbitration ruling.

China, it found, has no historical basis for claiming control over the entire 3.5 million square kilometre waterway. And the standardised set of territorial rules agreed upon by the United Nations after World War II still applies to the likes of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Beijing rejected the ruling.

Now the activities of the combat aircraft and frontline warships at Subi Reef indicate it may be about to take bold new steps in enforcing its claim.

China passed a new law this week demanding any international vessel that may “endanger the maritime traffic safety of China” must register its presence, schedule and intention: “Operators of submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials and ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas and other toxic and harmful substances are required to report their detailed information upon their visits to Chinese territorial waters.”

The problem is, nobody is going to reveal to Beijing where their submarines are. Or if they’re nuclear powered or nuclear-armed.

Nobody believes Beijing has the right to demand this information. And nobody agrees with Beijing’s definition of its territorial waters.

Invisible conflict

France revealed earlier this year that its nuclear-powered attack submarine SNA Emeraude had passed through the contested waterway. But not exactly where. “This extraordinary patrol has just completed a passage in the South China Sea. A striking proof of our French Navy’s capacity to deploy far away and for a long time together with our Australian, American and Japanese strategic partners,” Defence Minister Florence Parly tweeted.

Since then, the United States has sent all three of its most advanced submarines – led by the USS Seawolf – into the Pacific. That’s over and above the regular patrols by USS Los Angeles and Virginia class submarines.

And the United Kingdom’s nuclear attack submarine HMS Artful has been somewhere in the area in recent weeks. It’s been supporting the passage of the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.

Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea are just some of the regional navies operating diesel-electric submarines.

And while many navies have been reluctant to visibly defy Beijing by sending warships within 12 nautical miles (22km) of its island fortresses, they may have been doing so unseen.

Anti-submarine warfare has been a significant element of both Chinese and US activities in the South China Sea in recent months. Surveillance aircraft from both sides regularly scour its waters. Survey vessels probe its depths.

And that intense surface and above-surface activity may be just the tip of the iceberg.

Escalation clause

Beijing’s new arbitrary disclosure requirements came into effect on September 1. The fallout is yet to be seen.

Exactly what Beijing means by “endanger” isn’t clear, anyway. Nor is the area it expects the law to apply to.

“Such ambiguity is likely deliberate,” University of Indonesia international law researcher Aristyo Rizka Darmawan writes for the Lowy Institute.

China’s definition of its territorial waters specifically names the Spratly Islands as part of its territorial sea. That’s the specific claim the international court of arbitration rejected in favour of the Philippines.

But Beijing’s arbitrary ‘Nine-Dash Line’ claim sweepingly includes almost the entire South China Sea as territorial. And its First Island Chain’ policy adds all of Taiwan and the Japanese-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea to that grab-bag.

“It remains unclear where China will seek to enforce its new regulations and how the rest of the international community will respond,” says Darmawan.

“What is most important is that China must still guarantee the right of innocent passage and not provoke more tensions in the disputed area of the South China Sea.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel

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