How Australia can win tour of India: Stopping Virat Kohli, helping Nathan Lyon and David Warner

The Pat Cummins and Andrew McDonald era could have hardly got off to a better start, but 2023 will truly test Australia’s mettle.

Having vanquished the hapless West Indies and South Africa over the summer, Australia face India and England away from home over the next six months looking to leave their mark on history.

The Aussies haven’t won an Ashes series away from home since 2001 and last tasted success in India back in 2004, when Adam Gilchrist captained them to a memorable 2-1 series win.   

As it was the case then, conquering Australian cricket’s final frontier remains as difficult and as challenging as ever with India having lost just one series at home in the past 19 years.

The good news for Australia is that by the time they won there in 2004, it was their first win in India in 35 years. 

Daily Mail Australia takes a look at the factors that could decide the series.

Australia last won a Test series in India back in 2004, when they beat India 2-1 over four Tests

Spin doctors at work 

It may seem an obvious point to start from, but spinners and how batters respond to them will in all likelihood determine the outcome of the series.

Historically, spin has been comfortably more economical than seam across the Test venues on this tour – Nagpur, Delhi, Dharamsala and Ahmedabad – with quicks conceding an average of 6.6 runs more than spinners across the four grounds. 

In Nagpur, which will host the opening Test of the series, the difference has been even starker over the past decade with spinners averaging 19.6, while fast bowlers have taken their wickets at 37 runs each.

Nathan Lyon will again be Australia’s main spin option in the Test series in India

Ashton Agar is one of four spinners in the squad but averages 52 in Test cricket 

Australia have picked four spinners for the tour to India, but it remains unclear who will get the nod to support Nathan Lyon.

Todd Murphy has turned heads in Sheffield Shield by taking 14 wickets at 17.71 – the second-best average for a spinner in the competition this season – but is yet to make his Test debut.

Mitchell Swepson and Ashton Agar, meanwhile, average 45.8 and 52 in Test cricket respectively and the latter’s dress rehearsal at the SCG against South Africa was hardly encouraging.

Recent history, however, bodes well for Agar’s prospects as four of the five-most prolific Test wicket-takers in India over the past three years have all been left-arm orthodox spinners.

India’s home comforts 

If winning in India 18 years ago represented the ‘Final Frontier’ for Australia, the same metaphor rings true today.

Since losing to Adam Gilchrist’s men in 2004, India have lost just one series on home soil – at home to a Kevin Pietersen-inspired England in 2012 – winning 56 times in 84 Tests and losing just eight times.

Unsurprisingly, first innings runs are crucial for visiting teams hoping to win in India. 

Australia claimed a first Test series win in India for 35 years back in 2004 

India have lost just one other series at home in the 19 intervening years, a dominant run

Of the eight Tests India have lost in the past 18 years, four have come after the away team passed 500 in their first dig and another three with the tourists making at least 400 runs in their first innings.

The only exception? But why, Australia of course. In Pune six years ago, the visitors made a modest 260 in their first dig, which ultimately proved to be more than enough as India were skittled for 105 and 107. 

Perhaps more than in any other country, scoring big in the first innings remains crucial to win in India.  

David Warner’s big question mark 

Warner’s scintillating double ton against South Africa in the Boxing Test ended a Test century drought that stretched back to January 2019.

The 36-year-old may have temporarily silenced his critics, but legitimate doubts over his role in the team remain. 

Brilliant as the 200 at the MCG was, Warner’s other three innings of the series returned a combined 13 runs and aside from the double century against the Proteas, he passed 50 just twice in his last 21 innings.

More worryingly as far as Australia’s chances are concerned, the New South Welshman averages a meagre 24.25 in India, his second-lowest figure away from home bar New Zealand.

If Australia are to conquer India, they need the veteran batter to find his form.

David Warner averages just 24.25 in India and there are doubts he is fully over his slump in form despite a brilliant double century at the MCG against South Africa 

Can Virat Kohli return to form in Test cricket? 

Runs may have dried up for David Warner, but they haven’t exactly flown for Virat Kohli either. 

To find the last of his Test centuries one has to go back all the way to March 2019, when Kohli made 136 at Eden Gardens against Bangladesh just a month after plundering a career-high 254 not out against South Africa in Pune.  

The longest format of the game has proved a riddle hard to resolve for the former Indian skipper ever since, with Kohli averaging less than 30 in Test cricket each of the past three years.

Virat Kohli hasn’t made a Test ton since March 2019 and averaged just 26.50 last year 

Kohli looked distinctly vulnerable last year, when his Test average dropped to 26.50 – the third lowest of his career – and the previously unthinkable prospect of him having to fight for his place in the team briefly became a reality. 

The good news for India is that a series against Australia should provide Kohli the perfect chance to rediscover some form, given he averages 61.06 in home series and 48.05 against Australia in his career. 

His recent ODI form also bodes well for India. The 34-year-old averaged a career-worst 27.4 last year in 50-over cricket, but has peeled off 338 runs in six innings at 67.60 with two centuries so far this year. 

Pace to burn  

While spin remains a key factor in India, it no longer is the be-all and end-all it once was. 

England may have been comprehensively beaten 3-1 by India two years ago, but Jimmy Anderson took his eight wickets at 15.87 apiece and an economy of 1.92.  

Similarly, last year Tim Southee finished with eight wickets at 27.2 and an economy of 2.57, as India beat New Zealand 1-0.

Cast your mind back to Australia’s last Test series win in India and you’ll find pace played a key role, with Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Michael Kasprowicz combining for 43 wickets.

Four years ago, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood took 22 wickets in between them as Australia lost the series 2-1 – Starc and Cummins only played two Tests each.

Meanwhile spinners Nathan Lyon and Steve O’Keefe claimed 19 apiece. While Lyon would be happy with a similar return this year, Australia’s pace attack is among the finest in world cricket and the tourists must stick to their guns in India.

‘Pick your best four bowlers, run with them,’ Adam Gilchrist said last month.

‘And if that is three seamers who can all get really nice reserve swing and Nathan Lyon you do that, you go with it.’